European Gas Prices Recover as IEA Flags Lowest Winter Storage in 13 Years

European natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday, November 3, following a steep decline in the previous session. Market sentiment remained influenced by concerns over limited winter supplies, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that Europe was entering the heating season with its weakest gas storage levels in 13 years.

Dutch TTF natural gas futures for December delivery were trading at €98.20/MWh at the time of writing, marking a daily increase of 3.52%, according to the latest available market quote.

US-Iran Negotiations Trigger Monday’s Sharp Decline

European gas prices had dropped by more than 10% on Monday, reaching €93.18/MWh as prospects for diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran improved.

The decline followed reports that Iran’s supreme leader had authorized the government to pursue negotiations with Washington, while US President Donald Trump was reportedly prepared to give diplomacy additional time.

These developments eased concerns about potential disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from the Gulf. As a result, the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed European gas prices above €100/MWh in late October began to recede.

European Storage Levels Reach a 13-Year Seasonal Low

Despite the recent price recovery, Europe’s supply situation remains challenging. On November 3, the IEA warned that gas inventories across the region had reached their lowest seasonal level since 2013, increasing reliance on LNG imports during the winter heating period.

EU gas storage facilities were around 75% full at the end of October, below the bloc’s 80% target. Gas Infrastructure Europe reported that inventories stood at 74.62% on November 1. Germany’s storage facilities were significantly less filled, at 61.03%, below the country’s 70% target.

The IEA linked the low storage levels to supply disruptions, delayed procurement and slower-than-normal injections during the storage season. Gas injected into storage was approximately 4% below the five-year average.

LNG Supply Risks Could Extend Market Pressure Into 2027

Damage to LNG liquefaction infrastructure in the Gulf and reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have made it more difficult for Europe to secure additional gas supplies. This has increased the region’s vulnerability to disruptions during the winter heating season.

The IEA cautioned that colder-than-average weather, technical issues or further supply interruptions could accelerate withdrawals from already depleted storage facilities. The requirement to rebuild inventories during the summer of 2027 could also keep international gas markets under pressure well into next year.

For energy-intensive industries, particularly petrochemicals, persistently high natural gas prices continue to raise production costs. These pressures add to existing competitiveness challenges amid subdued industrial demand across Europe.

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