European PVC Producers Prepare Further Price Increases for November Despite Weak Demand

European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices continued to rise in the second half of October, although increases moderated as demand remained sluggish and supply stayed comfortable. Most producers scaled back their initial price hike targets of up to €150/ton, with the majority of deals concluded €40–70/ton above September levels.

The increase in the ethylene contract price and persistently high utility costs supported sellers’ efforts to recover squeezed margins. However, sufficient inventories, incoming import shipments and weak downstream consumption continued to limit buyers’ willingness to accept higher prices.

Looking ahead, European PVC producers are preparing another round of increases for November, supported by elevated production costs and expectations of a further rise in the next ethylene contract. Nevertheless, year-end inventory reduction and negotiations for 2027 supply contracts could restrict the extent of further gains.

October Price Hike Targets Prove Difficult to Achieve

PVC producers entered October seeking substantial increases to offset higher feedstock and energy expenses. However, weak demand made it difficult to implement their initial targets in full, prompting many suppliers to moderate their expectations as negotiations progressed.

Some producers lowered their targets to around €50/ton, while others continued to pursue larger increases to address mounting margin pressure. Most transactions were completed €40–70/ton above September prices, although certain suppliers accepted smaller adjustments to protect their market share.

A few sellers reported slightly more inquiries than in September, but overall order volumes remained disappointing. This indicates that higher production costs have supported prices more effectively than actual demand has.

Comfortable Inventories Keep Buyers Cautious

Purchases made in September ahead of anticipated increases, combined with the arrival of previously booked import cargoes, left many converters adequately stocked. As a result, several buyers had little urgency to make additional purchases.

Some market participants were still negotiating October contracts, seeking to limit the increases they would have to accept. Others restricted buying to immediate requirements because of weak end-user demand, particularly in construction-related sectors.

Ample regional availability has further weakened sellers’ bargaining power, despite the continued pressure from higher production and utility costs.

EU Anti-Dumping Investigation Triggers Sourcing Reviews

The European Union’s investigation into PVC imports from China, South Korea, Taiwan and Mexico has prompted buyers to reconsider their sourcing strategies amid concerns about potential retrospective duties. However, the investigation has yet to generate a significant increase in demand for European-produced material. Previously contracted import cargoes are also continuing to arrive, keeping supply levels comfortable in the near term.

Asian K67 PVC was offered at €860–870/ton CIF Italy, while Colombian K70 material was quoted at around €850/ton CIF. Price increases of up to €90/ton were reported for Mexican and Colombian material. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding potential retrospective duties has made buyers more cautious about placing new orders with the investigated origins.

Traders and converters are examining alternative supply sources across Asia, South America, Africa and the Middle East. Potential options include Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil and Qatar.

However, trade data for 2025 indicate that several of these suppliers had only a limited presence in the European market. Consequently, diversifying sourcing away from the investigated origins may take time. Qatar’s new PVC production capacity could eventually offer an additional supply option, although it was not an established supplier in the 2025 import figures.

The four investigated origins accounted for approximately 78% of EU PVC imports in 2025, underlining the challenge of replacing these volumes quickly.

November Increases Expected, but Demand May Limit Gains

European PVC producers are preparing further price increases for November, citing persistently high utility expenses and expectations that the next ethylene contract could rise by €50–80/ton.

Suppliers are likely to seek increases equivalent to at least half of the anticipated monomer cost rise, while some may attempt to pass on the full increase to protect their margins.

However, October’s negotiations suggest that initial targets may again exceed the increases buyers ultimately accept. Weak consumption, year-end destocking and the beginning of 2027 contract negotiations could encourage producers to adopt more flexible pricing strategies to retain customers.

As buyers limit replenishment ahead of year-end, some November deals could settle at increases below half of the expected ethylene contract rise. Therefore, while higher costs are likely to support another round of PVC price hikes, subdued demand and sufficient availability may prevent producers from fully achieving their targets.

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