Turkey PVC Market Firms as Rising Costs Point to October Price Hikes

Turkey’s PVC market has strengthened in the second half of September as another sharp increase in energy and feedstock costs encourages sellers to target higher prices for October. The latest geopolitical developments, including a reported attack on a major Saudi pipeline, pushed crude oil futures higher early this week and added further uncertainty to the cost outlook.

Some market participants noted that, unlike the usual seasonal trend, polymer prices may not experience significant declines in the final quarter of 2026 if upstream costs remain elevated.

Shipping costs have also added pressure. MSC introduced two new surcharges for cargoes moving from Asia to Turkey and other East Mediterranean and Black Sea destinations, citing piracy-related risks and additional expenses linked to Suez Canal transits.

Meanwhile, Asian PVC markets have climbed to multi-month highs, while European suppliers are preparing another round of increases in Turkey. Expectations of a higher ethylene settlement and lower operating rates at selected units of a major producer are adding to the bullish supply-cost picture.

These developments have started to influence buying behavior in Turkey, with some converters considering precautionary purchases to protect themselves against potentially higher replacement costs in October.

Geopolitical Risks Strengthen Cost Support

The latest crude oil rally has reinforced an already firm upstream environment. Energy and feedstock prices had been rising in recent weeks, and the reported Saudi pipeline incident introduced another layer of uncertainty.

As a result, some Turkish converters that had previously followed a cautious purchasing strategy have begun considering additional PVC purchases as protection against another cost-driven increase in October.

Asian PVC Rally Boosts Seller Confidence

Asia has provided additional support to the global PVC market. Chinese export offers continued to increase, supported by higher ethylene costs and firmer domestic prices. Pre-holiday buying ahead of the late-September holidays also contributed to the stronger market sentiment.

Import PVC prices across Asia have reached multi-month highs, giving suppliers greater confidence in seeking higher prices in Turkey.

A major US supplier raised its CIF Turkey K67 offers again this week after previously holding a competitive position in the market. Traders were also heard testing American PVC at levels of up to $880/ton CIF Turkey, although no deals had been reported at those levels.

While buyers continued to challenge higher offers during negotiations, sellers appeared significantly less willing to provide discounts than earlier in September.

European Suppliers Target Higher October Levels

The firmer cost environment has also affected the duty-free supply segment. Egyptian PVC remained among the more competitive options earlier in the week, but the rapid rise in costs led some traders to hold back new quotations. South Korean suppliers were similarly cautious as they assessed the latest changes in replacement costs.

European suppliers are increasingly becoming a key factor for the October outlook. Agents representing some regional producers have indicated substantially higher October targets, pointing to elevated energy costs, tighter availability—particularly for K70—and expectations of a higher regional ethylene settlement.

Supply restrictions are also contributing to the firmer outlook. A VCM turnaround at one producer has reportedly reduced PVC operating rates.

However, Egypt’s recently introduced measures affecting European PVC imports could influence regional trade flows. If European suppliers redirect additional volumes toward Turkey, this could eventually reduce their pricing leverage, particularly if European domestic demand remains insufficient to absorb available material.

For now, European sellers remain focused on higher prices, with indications approaching $950/ton for K67 and $1,000/ton for K70.

October Increase Expectations Strengthen

For the rest of September, sellers are expected to defend recent gains as elevated energy and feedstock costs reduce their incentive to offer concessions. Buyers could become more selective after securing precautionary volumes, particularly if crude oil prices stabilize or decline.

However, a continued oil rally, higher replacement costs and firm external markets could allow suppliers to maintain their stronger position even without a significant recovery in underlying demand.

Turkey’s local producer Petkim also had its PVC plant offline as of mid-September, while import K67 netbacks in Turkey remained relatively unattractive compared with Asian markets.

The direction of further price movements will depend largely on crude oil and feedstock costs, alternative outlets available to suppliers and emerging supply constraints. At the same time, Turkey’s inflation, liquidity pressures and uneven downstream demand could limit buyers’ willingness to accept aggressive increases, particularly as year-end and the seasonally slower winter period approach.

Nevertheless, if energy costs remain elevated and global PVC markets continue to strengthen, these demand-side constraints may not be enough to reverse the current upward trend, although they could make negotiations over the size of October increases more difficult.

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