Asian Ethylene Prices Recover as Higher Costs and Chinese Buying Revive Market

Asian ethylene prices regained ground this week, ending two consecutive weeks of declines as rising crude oil and naphtha costs, renewed Chinese purchasing and persistent regional supply constraints supported the market. Following China’s National Day holiday, traders returned to the spot market to secure cargoes for November requirements. Prices in Southeast Asia also moved higher amid improving regional sentiment.

However, the recovery in ethylene remained modest compared with the sharp rally in Asian propylene, where severe supply tightness and aggressive short-covering pushed prices significantly higher. Although traders expect ethylene to benefit from similar upstream cost pressures and limited availability, alternative import cargoes and buyer resistance could restrict further gains.

Spot ethylene prices in Northeast Asia increased to $1,170/ton CFR NEA, while propylene climbed to $1,340/ton CFR China, widening the price difference between the two products.

A Western trader noted that the extent of Chinese traders’ short positions and the tightness of domestic propylene supply had been significantly underestimated. The trader attributed the sharp increase in Chinese import and domestic propylene prices to the substantial differences between the supply-and-demand fundamentals of ethylene and propylene.

Asian Ethylene Price Snapshot

CFR China

Current: $1,170/ton
Previous: $1,150/ton
Change: +$20/ton
Bid Range: $1,150–1,160/ton
Offer Range: $1,250–1,300/ton

CFR Southeast Asia (SEA)

Current: $1,120/ton
Previous: $1,110/ton
Change: +$10/ton
Bid Range: $1,100–1,110/ton
Offer Range: $1,250–1,300/ton

Northeast Asian Prices Recover as Chinese Buyers Return

Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia reversed their two-week downward trend as Chinese traders resumed spot purchases following the National Day holiday. The sharp rise in propylene prices also raised expectations of a possible ethylene rally, encouraging market participants to secure cargoes for early to mid-November delivery before prices increased further.

Stronger upstream markets added to the positive sentiment. December Brent futures climbed to $106.65/bbl on Monday before easing to $105.69/bbl on Tuesday. Asian naphtha prices also rose sharply, reaching $1,006/ton CFR Japan on Monday before slipping slightly to $1,001/ton on Wednesday. Despite the modest retreat, naphtha remained $83/ton, or approximately 9%, above the previous Tuesday’s level of $918/ton.

Higher naphtha costs, partly driven by short-covering activity, strengthened sellers’ price expectations. Traders who had reduced their long positions ahead of the Chinese holiday returned to the market to secure supplies for November contractual commitments, wary of being caught off guard by a sudden price spike similar to the one witnessed in propylene.

Buying indications increased to $1,150–1,160/ton CFR China as competition for limited spot cargoes intensified. Several transactions for first-half November arrivals were reported at $1,160–1,170/ton CFR East and South China, with traders purchasing material to meet contractual obligations to end-users.

Meanwhile, fixed-price offers were heard at $1,250–1,300/ton CFR China and Northeast Asia, indicating a substantial gap between sellers’ targets and concluded deals. For floating-price cargoes arriving in November, sellers sought premiums of $40–50/ton over CFR Northeast Asian assessments, while buyers indicated premiums of $20–30/ton. Bids for October-loading FOB China cargoes were also reported at premiums of $15–20/ton over CFR NEA assessments.

Elsewhere, Taiwan’s Formosa was reported to have issued a tender to purchase ethylene cargoes for November arrival on a CFR Taiwan basis. The tender was expected to close on October 15. According to traders, the company has been seeking additional imports amid improved monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins and reduced supply from the Middle East.

In China’s domestic market, Sinopec maintained its ethylene list price at CNY 9,400/ton. Meanwhile, spot prices in East China and Shandong increased by CNY 200–300/ton to CNY 9,500–9,700/ton.

Regional Cracker Maintenance Keeps Fourth-Quarter Supply Tight

Northeast Asian ethylene availability is expected to remain constrained through November and the final quarter of the year as lower cracker operating rates and maintenance shutdowns restrict supply across China, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

In China, domestic availability has tightened because of reduced cracker operating rates and extended maintenance outages. Wanhua Chemical’s 1.2 million tons/year Yantai cracker has been offline since early October for a 60-day turnaround. CNOOC-Shell’s 1 million tons/year Huizhou cracker was shut down in late September for scheduled maintenance lasting approximately two months.

Sinopec Hainan’s 1 million tons/year Yangpu cracker, which was shut in July and initially expected to restart in September, has had its restart delayed until mid-October. Zhejiang Petrochemical, PetroChina Guangxi and Ningbo Huatai are also operating their crackers at reduced rates because of feedstock concerns and margin pressure.

South Korean supply is also expected to tighten as major crackers undergo maintenance. LG Chem is scheduled to shut its 1.3 million tons/year cracker in mid-October for approximately 45 days. KPIC plans to take its 800,000 tons/year cracker offline around the same time for roughly 40 days. The KPIC unit was reportedly operating at 65% before the planned shutdown.

In Taiwan, domestic availability is expected to remain balanced to tight despite Formosa Petrochemical restarting its 1.2 million tons/year No. 3 naphtha cracker in early September. The company was also scheduled to shut its 1.035 million tons/year No. 2 cracker in early October.

Both units are located in Mailiao, where Formosa’s 700,000 tons/year No. 1 cracker has remained offline since October 2025, with no confirmed restart date.

Southeast Asian Prices Follow Northeast Asia Higher, but Buyers Resist

Ethylene prices in Southeast Asia also increased this week, tracking gains in Northeast Asia and stronger upstream costs. Trading activity improved as regional participants returned to the spot market to cover early- to mid-November requirements, bringing the two-week price correction to an end.

Nevertheless, buyers remained cautious. Unlike propylene, where urgent short-covering and restricted availability have triggered steep increases, ethylene buyers continued to resist higher offers and sought more workable purchasing levels.

A Singapore-based trader said participants covering first-half November shortfalls were still testing sellers’ willingness to negotiate, as ethylene had yet to experience the same rally seen in propylene across Northeast and Southeast Asia.

The trader added that the brief correction indicated that underlying price support remained intact, particularly following the sharp rebound in naphtha costs. However, US Gulf cargoes offered for late November to December arrival in Northeast Asia and China, along with Indian ethylene cargoes available to Southeast Asia, could limit further increases.

Although these alternative cargoes have also become more expensive, their availability may prevent another sharp price surge.

Spot cargoes from Southeast Asia, South Korea, China and India were offered on both fixed-price and floating-price terms. Producers sought premiums of $40–50/ton over CFR Southeast Asian assessments, while fixed-price offers rose to $1,250–1,300/ton CFR SEA.

Buying indications remained significantly lower at $1,090–1,110/ton CFR SEA, highlighting the continued gap between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ willingness to pay.

Two transactions for early- and mid-November arrivals were reportedly concluded on a CFR Southeast Asia basis using floating-price formulas, at premiums of $20–30/ton over regional assessments.

Reduced Cracker Operating Rates Continue to Restrict Southeast Asian Supply

Ethylene availability in Southeast Asia is expected to remain tight through October and November as several regional crackers continue operating at reduced rates because of high feedstock costs, weak margins and operational constraints.

In Malaysia, PRefChem’s 1.29 million tons/year Pengerang cracker continues to operate at 60–70%, according to traders.

In Thailand, Rayong Olefins restarted its 900,000 tons/year Map Ta Phut cracker in mid-September following a shutdown that began in early March. The unit is currently operating at approximately 80%.

In Singapore, Aster Chemicals & Energy continues to run its 1.15 million tons/year Pulau Bukom cracker at 50–60%, following a month-long planned maintenance shutdown in August.

Meanwhile, PT Lotte Chemical Indonesia has reduced operating rates at its 1 million tons/year Cilegon cracker to 50–55% amid feedstock and margin concerns. Regional availability is also affected by ExxonMobil’s shutdown of its older 900,000 tons/year Jurong cracker in March.

With operating rates remaining subdued and traders returning to cover November requirements, regional supply constraints continue to provide support for ethylene prices. However, the substantial gap between bids and offers, alongside the availability of alternative import cargoes, suggests that any further increases may be more moderate than the recent rally in propylene.

Overall, Asian ethylene markets have regained upward momentum, supported by higher upstream costs, renewed Chinese buying and restricted supply. The extent of further gains will depend on whether demand strengthens enough to absorb higher offers and whether alternative cargo availability eases regional supply pressure.

Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.