Southeast Asian PP Imports Face Price Test as Chinese Sellers Return With Higher Offers

Southeast Asia’s imported polypropylene (PP) market remained mostly steady in early October, with weekly average prices for homo-PP raffia, homo-PP injection and PP block copolymer (PPBC) injection holding near their highest levels in around five months. However, the rally that started in July has gradually weakened, as high prices continue to discourage buyers from restocking despite support from rising feedstock costs.

Trading activity was limited during China’s National Day holiday from October 1–7, when Chinese suppliers largely stayed out of the market. Their return has brought higher offers, placing the focus on whether these prices can hold. China’s leading role in Southeast Asia’s homo-PP imports, alongside its expanding presence in PPBC, means its pricing decisions could significantly influence the region’s direction in the coming weeks.

Rising Costs Clash With Buyer Resistance

Upstream costs continued to support Southeast Asian PP prices. Propylene values maintained their upward trend, limiting sellers’ flexibility to lower offers. Brent crude futures also remained well above $100/bbl, while uncertainty over the Middle East conflict added to concerns about energy costs and encouraged sellers to defend existing price levels.

However, higher production and replacement costs have not triggered another strong market rally. After several months of increases, buyers have become increasingly reluctant to accept elevated offers, with some considering current prices too expensive. In the absence of a clear recovery in end-user demand, many converters are buying only to meet immediate requirements, while others are waiting for a potential price correction.

Consequently, spot transactions have remained limited, making it difficult for sellers to pass on further cost increases. Firm replacement costs have restricted the scope for substantial price reductions, but subdued demand has also prevented sellers from achieving significant additional gains.

This balance between cost support and weak purchasing interest has kept import prices broadly stable, leaving the market vulnerable to changes in feedstock costs and the availability of competitively priced material.

Chinese Sellers Return With Firmer Offers

China’s PP market reopened after the National Day break on a stronger-than-expected note. A sharp rise in Dalian futures, manageable post-holiday inventory levels and renewed energy-market support improved sentiment and encouraged some domestic restocking.

This stronger sentiment carried over into export markets, with Chinese suppliers returning to Southeast Asia with higher PP offers after their limited participation during the holiday period.

Whether these increases can be sustained will depend on the performance of Dalian futures, energy prices and domestic Chinese market conditions as normal trading resumes. Continued support from these factors could encourage exporters to seek further increases, helping reinforce the existing price floor in Southeast Asia.

Chinese offers will therefore remain an important indicator of whether regional PP prices can maintain their current elevated levels or face renewed downward pressure.

China’s Dominant Supply Position Shapes Regional Prices

ChemOrbis Stats Wizard data shows that China has been Southeast Asia’s largest homo-PP supplier since 2024, ahead of other major origins, including Saudi Arabia and South Korea. During the first half of 2026, Chinese homo-PP shipments to the region exceeded 800,000 tons, representing approximately 45% of total imports.

This substantial market share makes Southeast Asian prices particularly sensitive to changes in Chinese export volumes and sellers’ pricing strategies.

China’s role has also grown in the PPBC segment. It ranked as the region’s second-largest supplier after South Korea in the first half of 2026, shipping more than 100,000 tons. This volume had already exceeded China’s total PPBC shipments to Southeast Asia for the whole of 2025 and accounted for around 18% of regional imports.

Although China’s influence remains strongest in homo-PP, its expanding PPBC supply has further increased its importance in shaping Southeast Asian market conditions.

With Chinese suppliers now back in the market at higher prices, the key issue is whether buyers will accept the new offers and conclude deals. If exporters maintain their firmer stance, regional prices could consolidate near recent highs or resume their upward movement. However, continued resistance from buyers may limit sales and leave the market exposed to renewed pressure once trading activity returns to normal.

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