Asian Ethylene Prices Extend Gains on Higher Feedstock Costs and Tight Supply

Asian ethylene prices continued to strengthen this week, with assessments for both CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia increasing by $10/ton from the previous week. Rising crude oil and naphtha costs, active buying by traders and persistent supply constraints supported the market. The latest increase followed a recovery last week after a brief correction, as traders continued purchasing spot cargoes to meet contractual requirements for November amid expectations of further price increases.

Spot buying remained concentrated mainly among traders, while downstream end-users were more cautious. Market participants were increasingly concerned about the possibility of an ethylene price spike similar to the recent rally in propylene. Meanwhile, propylene continued to trade at a substantial premium over ethylene across Northeast and Southeast Asia, strengthening expectations that ethylene prices could rise further as cracker maintenance and lower operating rates restrict regional supply.

A Western trader said regional spot propylene availability was likely to remain tight through the end of the year, with low inventories across Northeast and Southeast Asia supporting prices. The trader also expected ethylene prices to advance further as crude oil and naphtha costs increased.

Asian Ethylene Price Snapshot

CFR China

Latest Price: $1,180/ton

Weekly Change: +$10/ton

Bid Range: $1,160–1,170/ton

Offer Range: $1,250–1,300/ton

CFR Southeast Asia

Latest Price: $1,130/ton

Weekly Change: +$10/ton

Bid Range: $1,110–1,120/ton

Offer Range: $1,250–1,300/ton

Northeast Asian Prices Rise for a Second Week

Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia increased for the second consecutive week, supported by stronger energy markets and continued spot buying. Brent crude futures were hovering around $110/barrel, while Asian naphtha prices reached $1,010/ton CFR Japan on Tuesday, nearly 11% higher than the $918/ton recorded two weeks earlier.

Spot ethylene prices gained another $10/ton during the week, taking cumulative increases since mid-July to approximately 44%. Propylene continued to command a premium of around $160–170/ton over ethylene in Northeast Asia, adding to expectations of further upward pressure on ethylene prices.

Traders remained active in securing cargoes for delivery during the first half of November to fulfil contractual commitments before spot availability tightened further. Concerns about rising feedstock costs and a possible price surge similar to that seen in propylene continued to support buying interest.

Bids for ethylene increased to $1,160–1,170/ton CFR China as more buyers competed for limited spot availability. Several deals for early-November arrival were reportedly concluded at $1,170–1,180/ton CFR East and South China, largely involving traders covering contractual requirements.

In the FOB South Korea market, bids for early-November loading were reported at premiums of $15–20/ton over CFR Northeast Asia assessments on a floating-price basis. Two South Korean spot cargoes of 3,000–5,000 tons each were reportedly sold at premiums of $20–25/ton against the same benchmark.

Fixed-price offers were considerably higher, at $1,250–1,300/ton CFR China/Northeast Asia. Sellers of CFR cargoes also sought floating-price premiums of $40–50/ton over regional assessments for November arrival.

In Taiwan, Formosa reportedly sought additional ethylene imports through a tender for November delivery. Traders linked the buying interest to improved monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins and reduced supply availability from the Middle East.

In China’s domestic market, Sinopec kept its ethylene list price unchanged at CNY9,400/ton. Spot prices in East China and Shandong also remained stable at CNY9,500–9,700/ton.

Cracker Maintenance Keeps Fourth-Quarter Supply Tight

Northeast Asian olefin supply is expected to remain restricted through November and the rest of the fourth quarter as maintenance shutdowns and reduced operating rates limit ethylene availability across China, South Korea and Taiwan.

Plant operating updates

South Korea

- LG Chem, Yeosu: Its 1.3 million tons/year ethylene cracker was scheduled for a 45-day turnaround from mid-October to early December.
- Lotte Chemical, Daesan: YNCC No. 1 and No. 2 crackers were operating at 70%, while No. 3 was permanently shut in August 2026. The supplied report identifies these units under Lotte Chemical.
- YNCC, Yeosu: The company’s crackers, with combined ethylene capacity of 2.315 million tons/year, were scheduled to shut from mid-October for 40 days of maintenance, extending into November.
- KPIC, Onsan: Its 800,000 tons/year ethylene cracker had been operating at 65% since July.
- GS Caltex, Yeosu: Its 900,000 tons/year cracker was running at 65–70% because of feedstock concerns.
- Hanwha Total, Daesan: Its 1.39 million tons/year cracker had been operating at 80% since June.
HD Hyundai Chemical (HDC), Daesan: Its 900,000 tons/year cracker was operating at 65–70% amid feedstock concerns.

China’s domestic olefin supply has also tightened due to lower cracker and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) operating rates and extended maintenance. Wanhua Chemical’s 1.2 million tons/year Yantai cracker has been offline since early October for a planned 60-day turnaround. CNOOC-Shell’s 1 million tons/year Huizhou cracker was shut in late September for approximately two months.

Sinopec Hainan’s 1 million tons/year Yangpu cracker, which has been offline since July, had its restart postponed from September to mid-October. Meanwhile, Zhejiang Petrochemical, PetroChina Guangxi and Ningbo Huatai have been operating their crackers at reduced rates due to feedstock availability concerns and pressure on margins.

In Taiwan, domestic ethylene supply is expected to remain balanced to tight despite the early-September restart of Formosa Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons/year No. 3 naphtha cracker. The producer also scheduled its 1.035 million tons/year No. 2 cracker for a shutdown in early October. Its 700,000 tons/year No. 1 cracker, offline since October 2025, still had no confirmed restart date. All three units are located in Mailiao.

Southeast Asian Prices Rise as Traders Cover November Requirements

Spot ethylene prices in Southeast Asia also increased by $10/ton week over week, supported by traders buying cargoes to cover contractual shortfalls for the first half of November. Most end-users remained on the sidelines, relying on term contracts rather than entering the spot market at elevated prices.

A Singapore-based trader warned that continued short-covering could add to upward price pressure, even as buyers became more reluctant to follow rising offers.

The trader said participants were concerned about another sharp increase in ethylene prices, but aggressive efforts to cover short positions could trigger such a move. Some buyers were therefore holding back rather than chasing offers. The trader compared the situation with propylene, where a supply shortage left buyers with little choice but to accept higher prices, contributing to the recent price spike.

The trader also expected the $170–200/ton premium of propylene over ethylene across Northeast and Southeast Asia to narrow in the coming weeks, suggesting that ethylene prices could catch up.

Additional ethylene cargoes from the US Gulf Coast were being offered into Northeast Asia and China for arrival in late November and December. Indian-origin cargoes were also available for Southeast Asia. However, the trader questioned whether these supplies would be sufficient to cover potential shortfalls if downstream operating rates improved and converters rebuilt inventories to protect themselves against further feedstock increases.

Spot offers into Southeast Asia included cargoes from regional producers, South Korea, China and India, quoted on both fixed-price and floating-price terms.

Southeast Asia spot market indications

Fixed-price offers: $1,250–1,300/ton CFR Southeast Asia

Bid indications:$1,100–1,120/ton CFR Southeast Asia

Producers’ floating-price offers:** Premiums of $40–50/ton over CFR Southeast Asia assessments

Reported first-half November deals:** Premiums of $20–30/ton over the same benchmark

The substantial gap between fixed-price offers and bids continued to restrict negotiations on outright prices. As a result, floating-price deals remained a more workable option for traders seeking to secure prompt supply.

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