Will Turkey's New PET Safeguard Duty Reduce Imports or Reshape Pricing?

Turkey has introduced a three-year safeguard duty on imported bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a move aimed at strengthening domestic producers and reducing reliance on imported material. While the new measure is expected to support local manufacturers, the market is now focused on whether it will actually reduce import volumes or simply encourage overseas suppliers to lower prices in order to remain competitive.

The safeguard duty, announced through a Presidential Decree published on July 11, will come into effect on July 19. An additional customs duty of $120/ton will apply until the end of 2026, before gradually decreasing to $115/ton in 2027 and $110/ton in 2028.

Imports had been falling before rebounding in 2025

Turkey has significant domestic PET production capacity and is not heavily dependent on imports. The safeguard investigation was initiated following concerns raised by a local producer regarding increasing import pressure.

Although PET imports had generally declined over recent years as local production expanded, the trend reversed sharply in 2025. Import volumes climbed to around 190,000 tons, marking the highest annual level in more than a decade.

China has also become the dominant supplier, accounting for nearly 80% of Turkey's bottle-grade PET imports in recent years, making Chinese exporters the key players affected by the new safeguard measure.

Will exporters cut prices to stay competitive?

The additional duty has created uncertainty over how overseas suppliers will respond.

Some market participants believe the safeguard will gradually improve the competitiveness of domestic PET producers by making imported cargoes more expensive. Others argue that exporters, particularly from China, may lower their export prices to offset part of the new duty and protect their market share.

For now, buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach, as the actual impact will depend on future pricing strategies from exporters and the pace of demand recovery in the domestic market.

Tariff quotas may reduce the impact

The new regulation also introduces tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for selected developing countries.

Imports that fall within these quota limits will be exempt from the safeguard duty, while shipments exceeding the allocated volumes will continue to face the additional tariff.

However, several important details are still pending, including:

When quota applications will open.
How quota volumes will be allocated.
Whether the available quotas will be large enough to significantly influence import activity.

The Ministry of Trade is expected to release separate guidelines covering the implementation of these quotas.

Market now watches pricing strategies

Although the legal framework has been finalized, its commercial impact remains uncertain.

If exporters absorb part of the additional duty through lower prices, imported PET could remain competitive despite the safeguard. On the other hand, if suppliers maintain current pricing, more buyers may shift toward domestic material, helping local producers gain market share.

With the safeguard taking effect on July 19, market attention is now centered on both the government's upcoming quota regulations and the pricing decisions of overseas suppliers in the weeks ahead.

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