EU PET Safeguard Debate Grows as Supply Sources Shift

Reports that France and Italy, with Germany also expected to support the initiative, are preparing to ask the European Commission to consider possible safeguard measures on PET have brought the polymer back into focus in Europe’s trade-defence discussions.

No formal Commission investigation has been announced so far. The discussion follows earlier anti-dumping measures against Chinese PET and an investigation into Vietnamese material that ended without any measures.

EU27 PET bottle imports have continued to rise despite repeated changes in trade policy and supplier origins. Imports reached a record of around 1.5 million tons in 2025, up 84% from 2021.

China lost its leading position after European duties were introduced, while Vietnam initially filled part of the gap before Turkey became the largest external supplier.

Import Growth Continues Despite Supplier Changes

Trade data show that total EU27 PET imports continued to expand over the period, although the leading suppliers changed significantly from year to year.

2022

Total import change: +47%

China: +196%

Egypt: +160%

Vietnam: +63%

2023

Total import change: +11%

Vietnam: +89%

Turkey: +24%

China: -22%

2024

Total import change: -3%

Turkey: +41%

Vietnam: +40%

China: -88%

2025

Total import change: +17%

Turkey: +53%

Egypt: +28%

Vietnam: -11%

The latest H1 2026 figures show a similar pattern. Overall EU27 PET imports increased by only 3% year on year, while Turkey strengthened its position with a 52% increase. Vietnam declined by 56%, whereas Pakistan recorded a 65% rise.

This indicates that overall import growth has slowed considerably, but supplier substitution remains active.

The figures provide arguments on both sides of the safeguard discussion. European producers can point to historically high import volumes and the rapid replacement of suppliers affected by trade measures. On the other hand, the relatively modest 3% increase in H1 2026 and fluctuations in annual trade flows could make it more difficult to establish a straightforward recent surge in imports.

Chinese Duties Reshape the Supplier Ranking

China moved from the third-largest supplier in 2021 to the leading source in 2022 and remained in second place in 2023.

The European Commission introduced provisional anti-dumping duties in November 2023, followed by definitive duties ranging from 6.6% to 24.2% in April 2024. The investigation concluded that dumped Chinese imports posed a clearly foreseeable and imminent threat of injury to EU producers.

Following the measures, Chinese PET dropped to seventh place among EU suppliers.

However, the overall impact on EU imports was limited. Total EU27 PET imports declined only slightly in 2024 before reaching a new record in 2025. While the duties significantly reduced China's presence, other origins largely replaced the lost volumes.

Vietnam Gains Ground Before Turkey Takes the Lead

Vietnam became the EU's largest PET supplier in 2023 and maintained that position in 2024.

The European Commission launched an anti-dumping investigation into Vietnamese PET in May 2025, with the imports placed under registration in July.

PET Europe withdrew its complaint on May 1, 2026. The Commission subsequently terminated the procedure on June 23 after determining that there was no indication that ending the investigation would conflict with the Union interest.

By that point, Turkey had moved ahead of Vietnam to become the EU's largest external PET supplier. The termination came less than three months before reports emerged about a possible safeguard initiative that could cover a much broader group of supplying countries.

Egypt has also become increasingly important. Its ranking improved from seventh place in 2021 to third in 2022, and it remained among the four largest suppliers during the following years.

The sharp movements among smaller suppliers further demonstrate how quickly Europe's PET sourcing structure can change when trade conditions shift.

Safeguards Could Affect More Suppliers

The repeated movement between supplier origins helps explain the interest in a possible safeguard mechanism.

Unlike anti-dumping duties, which generally target specific countries, safeguards can apply to imports from multiple origins. Depending on the final measure and applicable trade agreements, EU free-trade partners and other countries benefiting from preferential arrangements could also potentially be covered unless specifically excluded.

If tariff-rate quotas were introduced, the impact could therefore extend beyond China. Turkey, Egypt, Vietnam, Pakistan and other suppliers could potentially face volume limits or additional duties once quota thresholds are exceeded.

The exact impact would depend on factors such as the reference period, country allocations and any exemptions included in the final measure.

Such restrictions could provide greater protection for European PET producers, while potentially reducing sourcing flexibility for converters and making quota availability more important for major import-dependent markets.

Commission Decision Remains Key

The reported initiative is still at the proposal stage. A request to examine safeguard measures would not itself constitute a formal investigation, and an investigation would not automatically result in protective measures.

The European Commission would need to determine whether increased imports have caused or threaten serious injury to EU producers and whether any action would be in the Union interest.

Key developments to watch include whether the Commission formally launches an investigation, which PET products or grades would be covered, the reference period used to assess imports and whether preferential trading partners receive exemptions.

The broader trade data show that previous country-specific measures significantly changed the origins supplying the EU without reversing the overall increase in PET imports. The potential safeguard debate therefore shifts attention from individual suppliers toward the wider level of import pressure entering the European market.

Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.