War-driven rally loses momentum as Turkey’s PP and PE markets move lower

Turkey’s polyolefin markets have started a broader correction trend, with both imported and locally available PP and PE prices continuing to soften after weeks of sharp war-related increases. The market is now facing weaker downstream demand, tighter cash flow conditions, and fading panic buying, leading buyers to limit purchases to immediate needs instead of building inventories.

Following nearly two months of strong volatility caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in 2026, buyers have become increasingly cautious as prices remain historically high ahead of the extended May holiday period.

The arrival of competitively priced Chinese polyolefin cargoes since April, along with signs of operational improvement at some Middle Eastern plants, has also helped cool market sentiment. However, supply from major Middle Eastern producers is still not fully normalized due to ongoing shutdowns and logistical delays.

Russian PP prices finally soften alongside broader market

Import PP prices continued to decline during the week as market focus shifted away from supply concerns toward weak demand, shrinking order volumes, and liquidity pressure.

Although production outages and logistical disruptions across the Middle East are still affecting supply chains, many market participants now believe earlier panic-driven price increases had become unsustainable without healthy downstream consumption support.

One important development was the return of a Saudi Arabian producer offering homo-PP from existing stock despite its production units remaining offline. Market sources noted that these were previously stored inventories rather than newly produced cargoes. The release of these materials, along with prompt FCA offers from Bulgaria and Turkmenistan, helped reduce immediate shortage concerns and added pressure on import prices.

At the same time, Russian PP suppliers finally reduced their offers after maintaining elevated levels for several weeks, bringing prices closer to Saudi Arabian market levels.

Chinese-origin PP cargoes also continued influencing the market with more competitive pricing, contributing to weaker sentiment. The local PP market mirrored the softness in imports, while Petkim’s downward revisions encouraged distributors to offer additional discounts to attract buyers and improve cash flow.

Some converters were even heard reselling resin inventories to generate liquidity instead of processing finished products due to weak profit margins. While overall material availability is still not fully comfortable, weak demand has prevented the market from experiencing the severe shortage concerns seen during the panic-buying phase earlier this year.

PE market extends correction as buyers resist higher offers

PE prices also continued moving lower, especially in the domestic market, where distributor prices weakened further after Petkim reduced LDPE and HDPE prices.

After continuous price hikes since the start of the Middle East conflict, the local producer’s downward adjustment reflected growing resistance from buyers and the market’s inability to absorb additional increases amid poor demand and financial pressure.

Slow orders from downstream sectors and buyers’ reluctance to hold expensive inventories ahead of holidays continued limiting trading activity.

In the import market, US PE offers weakened further as Chinese cargoes became increasingly competitive. Chinese-origin PE continued offering Turkish buyers a lower-cost alternative compared to higher-priced American and Middle Eastern material, forcing US suppliers to revise offers downward.

Some Middle Eastern producers attempted to introduce fresh May increases for PE grades, particularly LDPE, citing ongoing regional supply tightness. However, buyers largely rejected these attempts, keeping bids well below targeted levels due to weak purchasing interest.

At the same time, signs of operational recovery at several regional plants contributed to softer sentiment. Market participants pointed to restart activity at some Saudi Arabian PE facilities and improving operating rates at certain UAE units, including Borouge cracker operations.

Although these improvements have not fully restored supply conditions and force majeure situations still remain for selected PP and PE grades, they have reduced fears of extreme shortages that dominated the market during March and April.

Market questions whether earlier supply fears were overstated

As prices continue correcting, many players in Turkey are now debating whether some of the earlier war-related supply concerns may have been exaggerated.

While the conflict clearly caused logistical disruptions, production shutdowns, and supply losses, recent developments suggest several producers may be recovering faster than initially expected through partial restarts, inventory releases, and operational adjustments.

However, market participants remain cautious about calling the situation fully normalized. Middle Eastern supply chains are still operating under unstable conditions, logistics remain fragile, and export availability continues staying below pre-war levels.

Current price declines are therefore seen less as a sign of comfortable supply and more as a reflection of weak demand, financial pressure, and the fading impact of panic buying.

Despite the recent correction, both imported and domestic PP and PE prices in Turkey remain significantly above levels seen before the conflict. Market participants are now closely watching whether demand improves after the Eid al-Adha holiday, as demand conditions are expected to become the main factor shaping market direction during the remainder of the second quarter.

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