UAE’s planned OPEC+ exit may reshape alliance influence, with minimal near-term supply change

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit OPEC+ from May 2026 is unlikely to result in an immediate rise in oil supply, as exports from the region remain restricted due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts suggest that while the move represents a major shift within the producer group, short-term supply flows are expected to stay largely unchanged because shipping constraints continue to limit export capacity.

HSBC noted that the UAE’s current ability to boost exports is capped, with the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah—used to bypass Hormuz—already operating close to its capacity of around 1.8 million barrels per day. However, once maritime routes stabilize, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company could gradually increase production beyond 4.5 million barrels per day, compared to its present OPEC+ quota of roughly 3.4 million barrels per day.

The bank expects any additional supply to enter the market gradually over a period of 12 to 18 months, rather than through a sudden surge.

Beyond immediate supply dynamics, the UAE’s exit could have longer-term implications for OPEC+ cohesion. As one of the group’s major producers expands capacity under its large-scale investment plans, its departure may reduce the alliance’s overall influence in the global market.

Market observers believe this could weaken coordination within the group over time, particularly during periods of fluctuating demand or rising output from non-OPEC producers.

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