Turkish PVC Market Struggles to Sustain August Price Recovery Amid Weak Demand

Turkey’s PVC market started August with a firmer tone following the first notable price recovery in several months during late July. However, the upward momentum has been difficult to maintain. Higher upstream costs and stronger sentiment across parts of Asia initially encouraged sellers to seek further increases, but buying support failed to follow.

As converters continued purchasing mainly to cover immediate requirements and prompt availability remained comfortable, the market turned into a struggle between sellers resisting lower prices due to rising costs and buyers holding back because of persistently weak demand.

Late-July Recovery Extends Into August but Loses Momentum

Sellers began the month by attempting to build on the gains seen in late July, especially in the dutiable K67 market, where US suppliers had led the initial recovery. However, these efforts gradually weakened as poor downstream demand, softer US export benchmarks earlier in the month, and sufficient supply strengthened buyers' negotiating position.

US K67, which had reached around $800/ton CIF in early August, was concluded at $730/ton CIF in some transactions on deferred payment terms. Although this remained above the July low of $680/ton, attempts to test $750/ton CIF and above again this week failed to establish a sustained upward trend, reflecting the lack of urgency among converters.

Comfortable Prompt Supply Keeps Buyers in Control

The weakening bullish sentiment was even more evident in the duty-free and local markets. Duty-free K67 was traded at around $800/ton CIF or below for large-volume buyers, while some competitive Egyptian cargoes were reported near $750/ton CIF in isolated transactions late last week.

The locally held market also faced renewed pressure, with prompt K67 prices falling as low as $1,050/ton ex-warehouse, including VAT, at the lower end as August progressed.

Petkim’s suspension of PVC production due to VCM-related issues had little impact on overall sentiment. Distributors continued to hold sufficient inventories, while buyers showed limited concern about near-term availability. The muted market reaction to the domestic production disruption highlighted the strong influence of weak demand.

Turkey Moves Differently From Firmer Asian PVC Markets

Rising production costs have prevented the Turkish market from turning decisively bearish. Brent crude moving above $90/bbl has strengthened the upstream cost environment, while China has shown greater resilience, supported by higher production costs and gains in Dalian PVC futures.

This contrast has become increasingly significant. While Turkey has struggled to maintain the gains achieved in late July, several Asian PVC markets have received stronger support from rising costs. Turkish import prices therefore remain at a noticeable discount compared with major markets such as China, Southeast Asia, and India.

September Outlook Depends on Demand Recovery

As August moves toward its final stage, the market is entering September from a more balanced position than recent price discounts may suggest. Duty-free K67 has already given back more than 60% of its July gains, while the dutiable segment has lost around 45% of its recovery, potentially limiting further downside if production costs remain elevated.

The end of India's monsoon season, the return of European market participants after summer holidays, continued strength in crude oil, and slightly higher FAS Houston benchmarks this week could support a firmer stance from sellers in September.

However, August has demonstrated that higher costs alone cannot create a lasting price rally. Unless converters increase restocking activity and downstream orders improve, any recovery in September is likely to remain gradual rather than strong.

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