Turkey PVC Market Struggles to Sustain August Price Recovery

Turkey’s PVC market entered August with a firmer tone after prices posted their first notable recovery in months during late July. Higher upstream costs and stronger sentiment in parts of Asia encouraged sellers to pursue further increases, but buying interest failed to provide the expected support. With converters purchasing mainly for immediate requirements and prompt availability remaining comfortable, the market has been caught between cost-driven seller resistance and persistently weak demand.

July’s Recovery Loses Strength in August

Sellers initially attempted to build on the gains recorded in late July, particularly in the dutiable K67 market, where US suppliers led the initial rebound. However, these efforts gradually weakened as downstream demand remained poor, US export benchmarks softened earlier in the month, and adequate stocks gave buyers greater bargaining power.

US K67, which traders had offered around $800/ton CIF in early August, was reportedly concluded at $730/ton CIF in some cases on deferred payment terms. Although this remained above July lows of $680/ton CIF, later attempts to test $750/ton CIF and above failed to establish a sustained upward trend, reflecting limited buying urgency among converters.

Comfortable Supply Keeps Pressure on the Market

The duty-free and local markets also showed weakening momentum. Duty-free K67 was traded around $800/ton CIF or below for large-volume buyers, while isolated Egyptian deals were reported near $750/ton CIF late last week. In the local market, prompt K67 availability also pressured prices, with the lower end slipping to around $1050/ton ex-warehouse, including VAT.

Petkim’s PVC production suspension due to VCM-related issues had little impact on overall sentiment. Distributors continued to hold sufficient inventories, while buyers showed limited concern about near-term supply, highlighting the continued dominance of weak demand in the market.

Turkey Lags Firmer Asian PVC Markets

Rising production costs have prevented Turkey’s PVC market from turning decisively bearish. Brent crude moving above $90/bbl has strengthened the cost environment, while higher production costs and gains in Dalian PVC futures have supported markets in China and other parts of Asia.

However, Turkey has struggled to maintain the gains seen in late July. In contrast to China, Southeast Asia and India, where cost support has had a stronger influence, Turkish import PVC prices remain at a notable discount to these major markets.

September Outlook Depends on Demand Recovery

As the market moves toward September, conditions appear more balanced despite the recent loss of momentum. Duty-free K67 has already given back more than 60% of its July gains, while the dutiable segment has surrendered around 45%, potentially limiting further downside if production costs remain high.

The end of India's monsoon season, the return of European market participants after the summer holidays, stronger crude oil prices and slightly firmer FAS Houston benchmarks could support sellers next month. However, higher costs alone are unlikely to drive a strong recovery. A meaningful improvement in converter restocking and downstream orders will be necessary for PVC prices to establish a more sustainable upward trend.

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