Oil Prices Rise Further as US-Iran Tensions Disrupt Hormuz Shipping

Oil prices continued to climb at the start of the week as renewed US-Iran attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern crude supplies. The latest developments came after OPEC+ kept its October production policy unchanged, while Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could reach $120/bbl if attacks on regional shipping escalate further.

On Friday, November Brent crude settled 76 cents higher at $96.28/bbl, while October WTI gained 18 cents to $91.48/bbl. By Monday, Brent was trading at $96.60/bbl, up 32 cents or 0.33%, while WTI stood at $91.37/bbl, down 11 cents or 0.12%.

Maritime attacks increase concerns over Hormuz disruptions

The latest price gains followed another escalation over the weekend, with US and Iranian forces targeting vessels across the region.

US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had also targeted three oil tankers using unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, along with three US vessels elsewhere in the region.

The attacks have raised concerns that disruptions to shipping through Hormuz could continue. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed that an average of only 10 commodity vessels per day crossed the strait over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May. Before the conflict, the waterway carried around 20% of global oil supplies.

Iran is also expected to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, adding further uncertainty for regional shipping.

Crude records strong weekly gains

The latest escalation came after a strong rally in oil prices last week. Brent crude rose 7.8%, while WTI gained nearly 10%, as renewed US-Iran attacks contributed to lower oil flows through Hormuz.

ANZ analysts expect an extended standoff involving intermittent US-Iran military action to remain the most likely scenario. They anticipate regional exports staying restricted through the remainder of 2026, followed by a gradual reopening toward the end of the fourth quarter. A full return to pre-conflict throughput is not expected until late Q1 or early Q2 2027.

OPEC+ keeps October output policy unchanged

OPEC+ decided on Sunday to maintain its oil production policy for October after completing the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut through its September increase.

However, actual production remains below targeted levels as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt regional exports. The group’s attention is now turning toward 2027 production quotas, including a review of members’ production capacities before further cuts are unwound.

OPEC+ is expected to hold off on additional output increases during the fourth quarter while these discussions take place. The seven members involved in the monthly production decisions are scheduled to meet again on October 4.

Goldman sees $120/bbl risk if shipping attacks worsen

The outlook for oil remains highly dependent on developments around regional shipping. Goldman Sachs warned that crude could rise to $120/bbl if attacks on vessels across the Middle East become broader and more severe.

The bank also highlighted natural gas and diesel as alternative ways to gain exposure to a further energy-market escalation.

However, Goldman outlined a much more bearish scenario if Middle Eastern exports return to normal, estimating that oil could fall toward $80/bbl once supply flows are restored.

The wide $80-$120/bbl range reflects the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict, with the future of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key factor for global oil prices.

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