Mid-East Supply Shock Sends Local PP, PE Prices Sharply Higher Across the Board

The disruption of polymer imports from the Middle East, the world’s top polypropylene (PP) exporter and the second-largest polyethylene (PE) exporter, has sent shockwaves through global polymer markets. Supply concerns have pushed buyers toward domestic markets, where significant price increases have emerged as the Middle East war entered its second week.

With Middle Eastern cargoes largely absent from the market, buyers across Asia, Europe, and the Mediterranean have increasingly turned to local suppliers to secure material. This sudden shift in demand has tightened domestic availability and triggered aggressive price increases across major polymer markets.

At the same time, market participants warn that the current rally could prove fragile, with the possibility of a sharp correction if normal trade flows resume.

Price discovery becomes increasingly difficult

One of the most notable features of the current market environment is the growing difficulty in determining reliable price levels. Market participants say real offers have become scarce as sellers hesitate to commit to firm prices amid extreme volatility.

“Very few sellers are quoting now. Those who still provide prices are testing extremely high levels. Under the current circumstances, it has become very difficult to determine where the market truly stands,” a trader in Vietnam said.

Another Vietnamese trader highlighted the unusual conditions. “Local prices have surged to levels we have never seen before, but the number of actual offers remains very limited. Many suppliers are holding back material while waiting for more clarity,” he added.

The lack of liquidity in spot markets has made price discovery increasingly difficult, with rumors of sharply higher offers circulating even as confirmed deals remain limited. The situation has been further complicated after Long Son Petrochemicals warned about potential operational disruptions due to feedstock supply constraints linked to the Middle East.

Traders in Türkiye reported similar developments. “Local producer Petkim has been implementing gradual and significant increases in its polyolefin prices since last week. As producers suspended their official import offers, demand for prompt material has risen quickly. Distributors have either increased prices for the limited volumes they hold or chosen not to issue offers because replacement costs remain unclear. Prices are changing daily,” a trader said.

Asia leads the rally, but pressure spreads globally

The strongest price increases have recently been recorded across Asia, with China and Southeast Asia leading the rally. Vietnam has seen the steepest gains, while India has experienced its strongest increases since the supply disruptions seen during the pandemic.

Beyond Asia, the shock has quickly spread to other regions. Türkiye and Egypt are experiencing extreme volatility, with prices reportedly changing daily or even hourly as buyers scramble to secure available material.

In Europe, three-digit price increases have begun to emerge amid concerns that the disappearance of Middle Eastern cargoes could force the region’s main alternative supplier — the United States — to redirect shipments toward more profitable markets.

According to ChemOrbis Price Index data, polymer prices have surged sharply across global markets in the two weeks since the conflict began.

Polyolefin price increases since the outbreak of the war

China: PP up 25%, PE up 15–31%

Türkiye: PP up 24%, PE up 16–25%

Vietnam: PP up 35%, PE up 35–50%

India: PP up 23%, PE up 21–24%

Italy / Northwest Europe: PP up 17%, PE up 10–22%

Egypt: PP up 26%, PE up 14–24%

Dependence on Middle Eastern supply

The severity of the price reaction partly reflects the heavy reliance many regions have on Middle Eastern polymer shipments. The region plays a critical role in global PP and PE trade, making disruptions particularly impactful for import-dependent markets.

Share of Middle Eastern supply in imports

China: PP 17%, PE 34%

ASEAN countries: PP 20%, PE 46%

India: PP 47%, PE 52%

Türkiye: PP 43%, PE 31%

EU27: PP 31%, PE 24%

India and Türkiye are among the most exposed markets for PP imports, while ASEAN countries rely heavily on Middle Eastern PE shipments. Europe also maintains significant dependence on the region, particularly for PP supply.

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