India's LLDPE ADD Proposal May Reshape Import Trade, Boost US Suppliers

India's proposed five-year anti-dumping duty (ADD) on LLDPE imports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Malaysia could significantly alter the country's import landscape if implemented. While the measure is aimed at supporting domestic producers, market participants believe it may also create a major opportunity for US suppliers to expand their presence in one of Asia's largest polyethylene markets.

In 2025, India imported nearly 920,000 tons of LLDPE, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Malaysia collectively accounting for around 36% of total imports. If duties are imposed on these origins, a substantial portion of the market could become available to alternative suppliers.

India's Key LLDPE Suppliers

Singapore

2025 Market Share: 34%
Jan-Apr 2026 Market Share: 34%

UAE

2025 Market Share: 15%
Jan-Apr 2026 Market Share: 10%

Saudi Arabia

2025 Market Share: 14%
Jan-Apr 2026 Market Share: 10%

USA

2025 Market Share: 12%
Jan-Apr 2026 Market Share: 17%

Malaysia

2025 Market Share: 7%
Jan-Apr 2026 Market Share: 10%

Trade data indicates that the shift may already be underway. During the first four months of 2026, US-origin LLDPE increased its share of India's imports to 17%, moving ahead of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to become the country's second-largest supplier after Singapore. At the same time, the combined share of the three countries facing potential duties declined noticeably.

Another factor supporting US exports is the changing situation in China. The country's growing domestic PE production and weaker import requirements have reduced opportunities for overseas suppliers. As China's dependence on imported polyethylene continues to decline, US exporters are increasingly looking toward alternative growth markets, with India emerging as a key destination.

US Share in China's LLDPE Imports

2023

Market Share: 24%
Status: Largest Supplier

2024

Market Share: 21%
Status: Largest Supplier

2025

Market Share: 16%
Status: Saudi Arabia Became Largest Supplier

Jan-May 2026

Market Share: 18%
Status: Partial Recovery

Although India's ongoing PE capacity expansions are expected to reduce import dependence over time, imports will remain essential for meeting demand and supplying certain grades. As a result, buyers are likely to continue sourcing significant volumes from overseas markets.

If the ADD proposal is finalized, US and Singaporean suppliers could strengthen their positions in India, while Middle Eastern exporters may be forced to redirect cargoes to Southeast Asia, Turkey, Africa, and other import-dependent regions, potentially reshaping regional PE trade flows.

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