China’s LLDPE and HDPE Film Prices Break Above CNY10,000/ton After Four-Month Rally

China’s domestic polyethylene (PE) market has reached a significant price milestone, with local LLDPE and HDPE film prices climbing above CNY10,000/ton this week. The increases extend a rally that began in July, pushing both grades to multi-year highs.

The weekly average price of LLDPE film has reached its highest level since September 2017, while HDPE film has climbed to a level last recorded in November 2018. The market has now recorded four consecutive months of gains, marking its longest sustained upward trend since the pandemic.

The rally has also changed the traditional price relationship between the two grades. LLDPE has caught up with HDPE, erasing the premium that HDPE had maintained for an extended period. Despite the sharp increases, downstream demand remains subdued, indicating that higher energy and feedstock costs, stronger futures and supply limitations have played a more significant role than consumption growth.

LLDPE Film Prices Rise 38% Since Mid-July

China’s domestic LLDPE film prices have climbed to their highest weekly average in more than nine years. The average has also moved above CNY10,000/ton for the first time since February 2018, highlighting the strength of the ongoing rally.

Since mid-July, LLDPE film prices have increased by a cumulative 38%, extending their upward movement for four consecutive months. The sustained gains reflect the combined influence of rising energy and feedstock costs, firmer futures and tighter availability in some parts of the domestic market.

HDPE film prices have also advanced substantially, although the increase has been more moderate. Local prices have risen by 28% since early July, with the weekly average reaching its highest level since November 2018. Moving above CNY10,000/ton represents another major milestone after several months of continuous increases.

LLDPE Eliminates HDPE’s Traditional Price Premium

A major development during the rally has been the narrowing and eventual disappearance of HDPE film’s long-standing premium over LLDPE.

HDPE generally traded above LLDPE from April–May 2025 onward, with the difference widening at certain points. By April 2026, the HDPE premium had reached as much as $150/ton.

The recent rally has substantially changed this relationship. LLDPE’s stronger cumulative price growth has allowed it to catch up with HDPE, leaving the two grades trading at nearly comparable levels.

Differences in supply availability and seasonal demand have contributed to the shift. Tighter LLDPE availability in some regions and seasonal demand for greenhouse films have provided selective support. In contrast, HDPE supply remains relatively abundant, limiting its gains compared with LLDPE.

Supply Conditions Differ Across PE Grades

Availability remains uneven across China’s PE market. LDPE continues to face the tightest supply conditions, with market participants reporting limited imports and relatively restricted domestic availability. Some LDPE production units have reportedly restarted as stronger local prices improved market incentives.

LLDPE supply has also tightened, particularly in South China, where operating rates remain low. Conditions in East China are less constrained, with supply still considered sufficient. HDPE availability, meanwhile, remains broadly ample.

A source at a Chinese PE producer attributed the latest price increases to higher crude oil prices and stronger futures, with supply constraints providing additional support for LDPE and LLDPE. The source also noted that improving domestic prices had reduced producers’ focus on export markets, encouraging greater attention to local sales.

Seasonal Greenhouse Film Demand Provides Limited Support

Despite four months of rising prices, downstream consumption has not improved enough to justify the scale of the rally. Greenhouse film production remains in its traditional peak season, as autumn and winter orders gradually build in northern China. However, the seasonal improvement has been weaker than in previous years, while demand for other film applications has deteriorated.

One Chinese trader said greenhouse film orders were accumulating gradually, but packaging film demand was weakening as e-commerce businesses reduced inventory preparation, resulting in fewer new orders.

Market participants continue to report low downstream operating rates, limited trading activity and resistance to elevated prices. Most converters are avoiding substantial inventory accumulation and buying mainly to meet immediate production needs.

A domestic PE producer source said buyers continued to make inquiries but were largely purchasing only essential volumes. The source added that producers intended to maintain firm offers because production costs remained high, even though downstream demand had yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Another trader similarly observed that stronger futures had been a key driver of the latest price increases, rather than a significant improvement in actual consumption.

China’s LLDPE and HDPE film markets have therefore crossed the CNY10,000/ton threshold amid strong cost pressure and supply differences. Whether prices can maintain these elevated levels will depend on supply developments and the ability of downstream demand to absorb further increases.

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