India's LLDPE ADD on Mid-East and Malaysia Could Hand US Exporters a Bigger Slice of Import Market

India's proposal to impose a five-year anti-dumping duty (ADD) on LLDPE imports from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia could significantly reshape the country's import landscape. Rather than only protecting domestic producers, the move is expected to create new opportunities for alternative suppliers, particularly the United States, which has already been increasing its presence in the Indian market.

The three countries under investigation accounted for 36% of India's LLDPE imports in 2025. If the proposed duties are implemented, their competitiveness is likely to weaken, leaving a substantial share of imports open to other suppliers. Although India's domestic production capacity is expanding, market participants believe imports will continue to play an important role in meeting demand for several grades.

India's Import Market Could Shift

India imported nearly 920,000 tons of LLDPE in 2025, up 15% from the previous year. Singapore remained the largest supplier, while the US strengthened its position during the first four months of 2026 by overtaking both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

India's LLDPE Import Share

Singapore

2025 Share: 34%
Jan–Apr 2026 Share: 34%

USA

2025 Share: 12%
Jan–Apr 2026 Share: 17%

UAE

2025 Share: 15%
Jan–Apr 2026 Share: 10%

Saudi Arabia

2025 Share: 14%
Jan–Apr 2026 Share: 10%

Malaysia

2025 Share: 7%
Jan–Apr 2026 Share: 10%

US Already Expanding Before Duties

Trade trends indicate that the transition has already begun. During January–April 2026, the US increased its market share to 17%, becoming India's second-largest LLDPE supplier. At the same time, the combined share of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia declined to around 30%, suggesting that buyers have already started diversifying their sourcing.

China's Lower Import Demand Supports the Shift

China's growing domestic PE production has reduced its reliance on imports, encouraging US exporters to look for alternative markets. As China's import requirements continue to decline, India has become a more attractive destination because it still depends heavily on imported LLDPE.

US Share in China's LLDPE Imports

2023

US Share: 24%
Market Position: Largest Supplier

2024

US Share: 21%
Market Position: Largest Supplier

2025

US Share: 16%
Market Position: Saudi Arabia Became Largest Supplier

Jan–May 2026

US Share: 18%
Market Position: Partial Recovery

Domestic Capacity Expanding, But Imports Will Continue

India is adding new PE production capacity through upcoming projects, which will gradually reduce import dependence. However, industry participants believe local production alone will not fully satisfy demand, especially for specialized grades. Imports are therefore expected to remain an important part of the country's supply mix.

Regional Trade Flows May Be Reshaped

If the proposed duties are approved, Middle Eastern suppliers may redirect more cargoes to Southeast Asia, Turkey, Africa, and other import markets, increasing competition there. Meanwhile, suppliers not covered by the proposed duties, particularly the US and Singapore, are expected to strengthen their presence in India as buyers diversify sourcing.

The proposed ADD is increasingly being viewed as a measure that could reshape not only India's import market but also PE trade flows across Asia.

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