European PP and PE Prices Face October Hikes as Buyers Remain Cautious

European polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) sellers are pushing for higher prices in October following €80/ton increases in both propylene and ethylene contracts. While some transactions have reportedly closed with increases of three-digit amounts, wider market acceptance remains uncertain as many buyers continue to rely on existing inventories.

Some suppliers are showing greater flexibility to secure orders and reduce stocks, indicating that initial price targets may be negotiated down. Limited import competition is supporting European producers, while tighter availability is providing additional support to low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Nevertheless, weak consumption continues to restrict sellers’ ability to achieve increases beyond the monomer cost rises.

PP Negotiations Show Uneven Price Gains

Producers have introduced October PP offers at increases of €100–150/ton in Italy and Northwest Europe, aiming to recover margins. Earlier market feedback indicated that some deals had been concluded with increases of €80/ton, in line with the propylene contract settlement.

More recent reports point to mixed results. One seller confirmed transactions involving three-digit increases, although buying activity was largely limited to customers with immediate requirements. Another supplier implemented increases of €80–100/ton and reported a modest improvement in demand compared with the beginning of October. However, these developments do not yet indicate a broad recovery in purchasing or widespread acceptance of higher offers.

In contrast, a distributor active in both PP and PE described demand as weak and indicated a willingness to negotiate down by €20–30/ton. Another PP seller remains open to offering small discounts to move volumes. Such concessions could reduce the difference between initial offers and final transaction prices as October negotiations continue.

Import competition remains limited. South Korean homo-PP offers at €1,280–1,290/ton CIF for January–February delivery have attracted little interest, as the extended lead time makes them less suitable for buyers’ immediate needs.

PE Markets Receive Support from LDPE Tightness and Higher Import Offers

October PE price targets vary by grade. LDPE offers have increased by €100–150/ton amid tighter availability, while HDPE and LLDPE offers generally carry smaller increases of €50–100/ton. The extent to which these targets will translate into actual transaction prices remains unclear.

One seller reported deals involving three-digit increases but described overall demand as weak, with some buyers purchasing only when necessary and others remaining inactive. Another market participant noted comparatively better demand for HDPE and LLDPE, although producers are applying different increases across grades.

Despite the improvement in some segments, the second seller remains willing to negotiate to reduce inventories. This suggests that stronger demand for particular grades has not eliminated buyers’ bargaining power.

Purchasing schedules are also limiting near-term activity. One converter has postponed buying because current stocks are sufficient and plans to return to the market in late October for November requirements. Although the buyer described demand as acceptable, a recent slowdown has reduced the urgency to replenish.

In Italy, traders reported that fresh US PE offers had risen by amounts in the three-digit range compared with September. However, a film converter secured US LLDPE at €1,100–1,120/ton DDP for December delivery.

Additional US offers included mLLDPE C6 at €1,300/ton DDP, HDPE film at €1,260–1,270/ton DDP and HDPE injection at €1,150/ton DDP. These offers were for November shipment and late-December delivery. Separately, a buyer confirmed US HDPE film at €1,260/ton DDP for December delivery and Uzbek material at €1,230/ton DDP for November delivery.

Higher import offers provide regional sellers with further support for their pricing positions. However, the later arrival of these cargoes means they are not a direct solution for buyers requiring material in the near term.

Late-October Purchases to Determine Market Direction

Higher production costs, limited import competition and restricted LDPE availability continue to underpin European sellers’ October price targets. The key question is whether buyers returning to the market later this month will accept the increases or negotiate concessions from suppliers seeking to secure sales.

Recent deals demonstrate that higher prices are achievable in some cases, but the available feedback does not establish the overall level of increases across either PP or PE. Purchasing requirements, grade-specific availability and sellers’ inventory positions are likely to shape the outcome of ongoing negotiations.

Expectations for November remain uncertain and differ between the two markets. In PE, rising costs and the possibility of further increases in US suppliers’ offers could provide additional support. However, the direction of actual transaction prices will depend on incoming offers and buyers’ willingness to accept them. In PP, preliminary expectations lean towards relatively stable prices, as higher costs are offset by subdued demand.

Inventory reduction could also limit sellers’ pricing power across both markets as the year-end approaches. The extent of this pressure will depend on stock levels and the pace of replenishment, leaving the November outlook uncertain.

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