China S-PVC Exports Hit Record High in February Ahead of Tax Rebate Removal

China’s suspension PVC (S-PVC) exports saw a sharp turnaround in early 2026, rising from a modest January performance to a record-breaking level in February.

The surge was largely driven by accelerated shipments ahead of the removal of the 13% export tax rebate, effective April 1, prompting both sellers and buyers to advance cargo movements.

Exports Jump Sharply After Weak Start

In January, S-PVC exports declined by 9% compared to the previous month, while showing a slight increase of around 2% year on year, reflecting a relatively stable market.

However, February saw a significant rebound:

• Exports surged nearly 60% from January
• Year-on-year growth exceeded 35%
• Total volumes approached 450,000 tons — an all-time high

This increase came despite the Lunar New Year holiday, highlighting strong urgency in shipments.

Policy Shift Drives Export Rush

The key factor behind the surge was the upcoming removal of the 13% VAT export rebate.

Under this system, exporters could recover input taxes, reducing costs and enabling competitive pricing. With the rebate set to end, export costs are expected to rise, prompting market participants to secure shipments in advance.

This led to a sharp increase in February export volumes as buyers rushed to lock in lower prices.

Lower Prices Limit Revenue Growth

Despite record shipment volumes, export value growth remained limited due to weaker prices.

• January export value: $162 million
• February export value: $262 million

Although February marked the highest export value since mid-2022, it remained significantly below historical peaks.

Prices during February stayed below $700/ton CIF, which capped revenue gains despite the surge in volumes. This indicates that the export growth was driven more by volume than by pricing strength.

India Remains the Key Export Market

India continued to be the largest destination for Chinese S-PVC exports:

• February share: ~44%
• January–February combined share: ~38%

Exports to India reached a record 199,300 tons in February:

• Up 155% from January
• Up 38% year on year

The increase reflects strong demand as well as aggressive buying ahead of the tax rebate removal. Indian buyers, heavily reliant on imports, moved quickly to secure cargoes before expected price increases after April.

Market Outlook

With the export tax rebate set to end, Chinese S-PVC export competitiveness is expected to decline in the coming months.

This could lead to higher export prices and a potential slowdown in shipment volumes after the recent surge.

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