China’s PVC Exports Grow in 2026, but Slower Indian Demand Hits Momentum

China’s suspension-grade polyvinyl chloride (S-PVC) exports maintained year-on-year growth during January–September 2026, but the pace of expansion weakened considerably after a record first quarter. Reduced shipments to India, China’s largest export destination, played a major role in the slowdown, while stronger demand from Vietnam and Indonesia indicated a gradual diversification of export markets.

China exported more than 3.2 million tons of S-PVC during the first nine months of 2026, representing an increase of nearly 11% from the same period last year. The cumulative volume was already more than 23% above China’s total exports for 2024, reflecting the rapid expansion of overseas sales in recent years. However, shipments had yet to reach the approximately 3.8 million tons exported throughout 2025.

Record First-Quarter Shipments Followed by Declines

Despite the positive year-to-date figures, quarterly data point to a clear loss of momentum as the year progressed.

After reaching an all-time high in the first quarter, China’s S-PVC exports declined in both the second and third quarters. Q3 shipments fell by more than 13% compared with Q2 and were down 12% year on year. Compared with the first-quarter peak, exports had dropped by approximately 40%.

This trend indicates that the strong nine-month performance was largely supported by exceptionally high shipments early in the year. Subsequent quarterly declines suggest that export growth has become increasingly difficult to sustain.

Slower Indian Buying Weighs on Export Performance

India remained China’s leading destination for S-PVC exports during January–September 2026, accounting for 37% of total shipments, compared with 42% during the corresponding period in 2025.

Although India’s share of Chinese exports decreased, cumulative shipments to the country still increased by around 2% year on year. However, recent quarterly figures reveal a sharper deterioration in demand.

Exports to India declined by 13% between Q2 and Q3 and fell 26% compared with Q3 2025. From their first-quarter peak, shipments to India nearly halved, indicating a more pronounced contraction than the decline in China’s overall S-PVC exports.

India accounted for roughly one-third of the reduction in China’s total exports between the second and third quarters, highlighting the considerable influence of Indian buying activity on China’s export performance.

The slowdown has also coincided with tighter import regulations in India, including restrictions introduced in July on certain lower-priced PVC imports. Although the precise effect of these measures on Chinese shipments remains unclear, the evolving trade environment has added uncertainty for exporters that depend heavily on the Indian market.

Vietnam and Indonesia Become More Important Destinations

While India’s contribution to China’s S-PVC exports declined, other Asian markets gained a larger share of shipments.

Vietnam remained China’s second-largest export destination in January–September 2026. Purchases from China surged by more than 63% year on year, lifting Vietnam’s share of total Chinese exports to 9%, compared with approximately 6% during the same period last year.

Indonesia recorded even stronger growth, with imports of Chinese S-PVC rising by around 151% year on year. The country moved from 12th place to become China’s third-largest export destination, demonstrating its growing importance as an alternative market.

The gains in Vietnam and Indonesia suggest that China is gradually expanding its export reach beyond its traditional dependence on India. However, growth in these markets has not been enough to fully compensate for declining shipments to India and weaker exports elsewhere.

Overall, China’s S-PVC exports remained higher year on year during the first nine months of 2026, but consecutive quarterly declines point to weakening momentum. The performance of India and other major Asian destinations will be crucial in determining whether China can sustain export growth through the remainder of the year.

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