Asia Ethylene Prices Extend Six-Week Decline, Erasing Nearly Half of Earlier Rally Gains

Asian ethylene markets continued to weaken for the sixth straight week as weak downstream demand, rising inventories, and increasing regional supply continued pressuring prices across Northeast Asia (NEA) and Southeast Asia (SEA).

According to market data, the recent correction has now erased nearly half of the sharp gains recorded during the rally seen between early March and early April following geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.

CFR China ethylene prices had surged by nearly $790/ton during the earlier rally, reaching around $1500/ton in early April. However, prices have since reversed sharply, falling continuously over the last six weeks to around $1120/ton this week.

Similarly, CFR Southeast Asia ethylene prices climbed by nearly $820/ton during the rally period before touching approximately $1510/ton. Since then, the market has corrected by around $340/ton.

The price gap between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained stable at around $50/ton this week as both regions continued moving lower.

Asia Ethylene Price Snapshot ($/ton)

CFR China: $1120/ton (Down $60)
Bid Range: $1080-1100 | Offer Range: $1200-1250

CFR SEA: $1170/ton (Down $60)
Bid Range: $1130-1150 | Offer Range: $1250-1300

Northeast Asia Faces Heavy Inventory Pressure

Market participants said the correction has intensified because of weak demand from downstream derivative sectors combined with increasing supply availability, especially from South Korea.

Traders who were unable to place cargoes during the earlier high-price period reportedly carried inventories forward into May, increasing spot market pressure and forcing sellers to lower offers aggressively.

Spot bids for June cargoes reportedly slipped below $1120/ton CFR China and South Korea, while several deals were heard concluded around the low-$1100-1140/ton range for China and Taiwan delivery.

Taiwan’s Formosa was also reported receiving offers around $1140/ton CFR Mailiao but refrained from buying due to expectations of further price declines.

Inside China, Sinopec reduced its ethylene list price by CNY600/ton to CNY8300/ton, while East China truck-based spot prices also dropped sharply.

South Korean Producers Raise Operating Rates

Although cracker and PDH operating rates across Asia remain below pre-war levels, several South Korean producers have gradually increased operating rates during May after securing alternative naphtha supplies from the US, Russia, and Africa.

Major South Korea Plant Updates

Lotte Chemical – Daesan: Run rate increased to 85% from 75%

Hanwha Total – Daesan: Run rate increased to 90% from 80%

GS Caltex – Yeosu: Run rate increased to 75-80% from 65%

HD Hyundai Chemical – Daesan: Run rate increased to 80% from 65-70%

KPIC – Onsan: Run rate increased to 75% from 65%

Market players said the increase in olefin supply coincided with weakening downstream demand, creating a clear imbalance between supply and consumption across the region.

Southeast Asia Prices Continue Falling

Southeast Asian ethylene prices also extended losses for the sixth consecutive week as traders lowered offers aggressively to clear June cargoes.

The softer prices attracted some buying interest from Indonesian end-users including PT Asahimas and PT Sulfindo, with deals reportedly concluded around $1170-1180/ton CFR Indonesia for early June arrival.

Traders were heard offering both fixed-price and formula-based cargoes with heavy discounts, while buyers continued pushing bids lower.

Despite the ongoing decline, market participants noted that supply in Southeast Asia remains tighter compared to Northeast Asia due to multiple cracker shutdowns and reduced operating rates.

Malaysia’s PRefChem cracker at Pengerang has remained offline since mid-March, while Petronas’ No.2 Kertih cracker is expected to stay shut through June.

Thailand’s Rayong Olefins cracker also remains offline following its March shutdown, with no confirmed restart timeline available yet.

Overall, traders believe ethylene prices may continue facing pressure from weak demand in the near term, although tight regional supply and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could eventually create a temporary price floor.

Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.