Oil Prices Rise as Trump Warns of Possible New Strikes on Iran

Crude oil prices extended their gains after US President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran following the first exchange of fire between the two sides in several weeks.

At the time of reporting, Brent crude was trading at $91.48/bbl, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $86.97/bbl. Both benchmarks were more than $1/bbl higher than Monday’s levels.

Trump Issues Fresh Warning to Iran

Speaking from the Oval Office on Monday evening, Trump said the US was prepared to take further military action against Iran if necessary, adding renewed uncertainty to the regional supply outlook.

The latest escalation has increased concerns over the security of crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies.

Hormuz Shipments Remain Well Below Pre-War Levels

Tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels. Shipping data indicates that crude flows from the Persian Gulf averaged around 6 million barrels per day, while Kpler data showed only five commodity vessels passing through the waterway on Monday.

That compares with a 10-day average of 14 vessels, highlighting the continued disruption to shipping activity.

ING commodity analysts said regional oil producers have become more comfortable using shuttle operations to move crude through the key chokepoint. Reports indicate that around 6-8 million barrels per day may currently be moving through the strait, although ING assumes an average flow of approximately 5 million barrels per day.

The analysts warned that further escalation could again put these flows under pressure.

ANZ analysts also noted that, despite satellite tracking data indicating around 6 million barrels per day of oil moving through Hormuz, volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels.

Global Oil Supply Buffers Face Growing Pressure

Concerns are also increasing over the availability of global supply buffers as seasonal demand begins to strengthen.

US inventories are approaching minimum levels, while China’s ability to maintain lower import volumes could come under pressure as seasonal consumption increases.

This combination is adding to uncertainty in oil markets, with traders increasingly focused on whether available supply will be sufficient to meet improving demand.

Diesel Market Faces Greater Supply Pressure

While crude supply concerns remain significant, the situation in the diesel market is even tighter.

Russia has extended its diesel export ban through the end of September amid continued Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. At the same time, Middle Eastern diesel exports remain affected by the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refineries across the region.

With supply from several major sources under pressure, diesel availability is becoming increasingly constrained, adding another layer of risk to global energy markets.

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