Turkey’s PE Market Splits as Import Hikes Lose Steam, Local Prices Rise Further

Turkey’s PE market showed a divided trend this week, as resistance to higher import prices contrasted with continued gains in the locally held market. Middle Eastern suppliers gave back part of their initial August increases to secure sales, while US-origin offers retreated from earlier highs due to weak buying interest. Meanwhile, lean distributor inventories, steady demand for prompt material and higher replacement costs continued to support local prices.

US PE Retreats, Middle Eastern Sellers Adjust

August negotiations showed that buyers were unwilling to accept the full extent of suppliers’ initial price increases. Middle Eastern LLDPE and HDPE sellers offered discounts from their opening levels to conclude deals. The correction was more noticeable for US-origin material, with more LLDPE and HDPE offers falling below the $1100/ton CIF level after the earlier rally lost momentum.

Buyers remained cautious about purchasing cargoes with long delivery times. Although firm PE trends in Asia and India continued to support sellers, volatile crude oil prices and weak downstream demand discouraged buyers from chasing higher import prices. Many converters therefore preferred locally available material over distant cargoes.

LDPE Remains More Resilient

LDPE continued to outperform the broader PE market. Middle Eastern LDPE prices increased by another $20/ton during the week, while the lower ends of LLDPE and HDPE film ranges softened.

Limited import availability and modest Petkim supply for certain grades helped keep LDPE prices firm. Sellers faced less pressure to reduce their August targets, while the relative scarcity of material also supported the local market. Distributor offers reached as high as $1850/ton ex-warehouse, including VAT. LDPE may therefore remain better supported than other PE grades unless availability improves.

Local Market Continues to Rise

The locally held PE market extended its upward trend, with prices gaining $10-20/ton during the week despite weaker momentum in some import segments. Petkim maintained its list prices following a series of earlier increases, while distributor offers for LLDPE and HDPE film reached up to $1750/ton ex-warehouse, including VAT.

Supply and logistics concerns also encouraged buyers to favour prompt or quickly arriving cargoes. Congestion at Jeddah port, lengthy delivery times for US material and disruptions in the Black Sea remained key concerns. The drone attack on SIBUR’s Tobolsk complex added another layer of uncertainty, although market players remained cautious as the extent of the damage was still unclear.

Market Awaits Fresh September Direction

Turkish buyers have become increasingly cautious after frequent changes in prices and market sentiment. In the near term, the PE market may enter a consolidation phase, with sellers trying to defend higher replacement costs while buyers continue to resist further major increases.

Tight prompt availability and firm global PE trends should prevent prices from returning to earlier lows, while sluggish downstream demand and hesitation toward distant cargoes may limit further gains. September could provide clearer direction as European markets return from summer holidays and post-monsoon demand in India potentially improves. A combination of stronger demand, tighter supply and firm upstream costs could support fresh hike attempts, while weaker energy prices or continued poor derivative demand could lead to price stabilization or further concessions depending on the grade.

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