Turkey’s PE Market Diverges as Import Hikes Face Resistance While Local Prices Continue Rising

Turkey’s PE market showed contrasting trends this week. Import price increases lost momentum as buyers resisted higher August levels, while the locally held market continued to strengthen on tight distributor stocks, active prompt demand and rising replacement costs. Middle Eastern suppliers had to offer some discounts from their initial targets to secure deals, while US-origin material also retreated amid limited buying interest.

Import PE Hikes Lose Momentum

August negotiations showed that suppliers were struggling to fully implement their initial price increases. Middle Eastern sellers agreed to discounts on some LLDPE and HDPE transactions, while US-origin PE saw a more noticeable correction.

More US LLDPE and HDPE offers moved below the $1,100/ton CIF level after the earlier upward trend weakened. Buyers remained cautious about cargoes with long delivery periods, particularly given volatile crude oil prices and weak demand for downstream products.

Although firm PE markets in Asia and India continued to offer some support, buyers generally preferred locally available material over distant imports due to delivery and supply risks.

LDPE Remains the Strongest PE Grade

LDPE continued to outperform other PE grades. Middle Eastern LDPE prices increased by another $20/ton during the week, while the lower ends of LLDPE and HDPE film ranges softened.

Limited import availability and restricted supply of selected grades from Petkim helped maintain LDPE's stronger position. In the local market, distributors sought prices of up to $1,850/ton ex-warehouse, including VAT.

The relative shortage of LDPE is expected to keep the grade better supported than LLDPE and HDPE in the near term unless import availability improves.

Local PE Market Continues to Firm

The locally held PE market moved higher by around $10-20/ton this week, despite weaker momentum in some import segments.

Petkim kept its list prices unchanged after a series of previous increases, while distributor offers for LLDPE and HDPE film reached up to $1,750/ton ex-warehouse, including VAT, in some cases.

Lean distributor inventories and demand for immediately available material continued to support local prices. Supply and logistics concerns also encouraged buyers to favour prompt cargoes over distant shipments.

Congestion at Jeddah port, lengthy delivery schedules for US material and disruptions affecting Black Sea trade remained key concerns. The recent drone attack on SIBUR’s Tobolsk complex added further uncertainty, although the impact on production and supply had not yet been clearly established.

Market Awaits September Direction

Frequent changes in pricing and market sentiment have made Turkish buyers increasingly cautious. In the near term, the PE market may move into a consolidation phase as sellers attempt to protect higher replacement costs while buyers continue to resist further significant increases.

Tight prompt availability and firm international PE trends could prevent prices from falling back to pre-rebound levels. However, weak downstream demand and limited interest in long-distance cargoes are likely to restrict further gains.

September may provide clearer direction, particularly as European markets return from the summer holiday period and post-monsoon demand potentially improves in India. A combination of stronger global demand, tight supply and higher upstream costs could support another round of price increases. On the other hand, softer energy prices or continued weak demand could lead to stabilization or further concessions depending on the PE grade.

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