Tight Supply Lifts Import PP and PE Offers in Türkiye by 5% Since the Start of 2026

Türkiye’s polyolefin markets have extended their gains into February, as restricted import volumes have shifted pricing power back to suppliers. After significant stock depletion in late 2025, arrivals from the Middle East, Russia, and the US have remained limited across most grades. Harsh weather conditions and production disruptions have further strained supply chains, tightening availability.

Since the beginning of 2026, import PP and PE prices have rebounded by 5–6% ($45–50/ton), marking a notable recovery from the historic lows seen last year. The recent wave of hikes stimulated restocking activity, although resistance has begun to emerge at the upper end of price ranges as Ramadan approaches.

Sellers Regain Ground After Prolonged Downtrend

Polyolefin prices faced sustained pressure throughout 2025 amid weak demand and global oversupply. According to ChemOrbis data, cumulative losses reached 17% for PPH and PPBC during the year, with Saudi Arabian offers dropping by nearly $200/ton.

In the PE segment, Middle Eastern LDPE and HDPE film grades fell by 11% ($110–120/ton), while LLDPE C4 film declined by 13% ($130/ton). US-origin LLDPE dropped by $110/ton (11%), and HDPE film decreased by $70/ton (7%).

The recent rebound has offered some relief to sellers following significant margin erosion in 2025.

Tight Russian Stocks, Delayed Shipments Support PP

Import PP prices bottomed out in the second half of November 2025. Gradual hikes were accepted as buyers placed limited orders to hedge against potential first-quarter increases. Momentum strengthened in early 2026, driven by tight volumes from key suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Diminished Russian stocks, production disruptions in Kazakhstan linked to feedstock issues, and delivery delays for Saudi cargoes secured late last year have reinforced the bullish stance. Market participants suggest that the upward trend could persist into March, particularly if demand recovers after Ramadan.

PE Gains Led by HDPE Film

In PE, Middle Eastern sellers shifted to a firmer stance in December after months of price cuts, supported by the reduced presence of competitively priced US cargoes. Fresh hike attempts in January and February prompted buyers to restock early despite generally subdued downstream demand.

Saudi sellers initially targeted $50/ton increases this month. Transactions for LLDPE C4 film rose by $20–30/ton, while HDPE film recorded stronger gains of $40–50/ton from January levels, reflecting relatively tighter supply-demand dynamics.

US-origin LLDPE and HDPE offers have lost competitiveness, with prices reaching as high as $950/ton in some cases. Market players are also monitoring potential changes in Iranian supply flows amid evolving geopolitical conditions.

Outlook: Supply Concerns Versus Seasonal Slowdown

Market expectations for late Q1 remain divided. Some participants foresee additional PP and PE hikes if supply constraints persist, while others believe the bullish momentum may soften due to Ramadan, the Lunar New Year impact, easing container freight rates from Asia, and the possible arrival of delayed cargoes.

Several traders note that replacement volumes have been limited, as many market participants remain cautious following heavy losses in late 2025. As a result, supply may stay constrained until April or May. If demand strengthens after Ramadan, polyolefin markets could maintain their firm tone in the near term.

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