SE Asia’s War Premium Scoreboard: PVC Nears Normal Levels While PP, PET and LDPE Stay Elevated

Southeast Asia’s import polymer markets have continued to correct from the sharp rally triggered by the Middle East conflict, but the pace of adjustment varies significantly across products. While some polymers have moved closer to pre-conflict levels, others continue to trade at substantial premiums despite weak demand and ample supply.

Among the major polymers, PVC has shown the strongest normalization. After a sharp rise during the conflict period, import PVC prices have retreated considerably and are now only around 9% above their pre-war levels. Persistent demand weakness, comfortable regional availability, and aggressive pricing from Northeast Asian suppliers have accelerated the correction, making PVC the closest market to returning to normal pricing conditions.

In contrast, PET bottle, Homo PP, and LDPE film continue to retain the largest war-related premiums. PET bottle prices remain roughly 36% above pre-war levels after only a modest correction from their peak. Similarly, Homo PP and LDPE film are still trading around 40% higher than levels seen before the conflict, despite recent declines. These products remain among the most inflated polymer markets in the region.

HDPE, LLDPE, ABS, and GPPS occupy the middle ground. HDPE and LLDPE prices have corrected more noticeably from their highs but remain around 29-30% above pre-war levels. ABS continues to hold a premium of approximately 29%, while GPPS remains about 25% higher than before the conflict despite a significant pullback from its peak.

The differing pace of corrections highlights how individual market fundamentals are now driving pricing trends rather than a single regional factor. Markets facing stronger supplier competition, higher inventories, and pressure from low-priced Chinese exports have corrected faster, while products with tighter supply conditions have maintained a larger portion of their earlier gains.

Looking ahead, sluggish demand across Southeast Asia, cautious buying behavior, and expectations of further price declines may continue to pressure polymer markets. Unless energy and feedstock costs stage a meaningful recovery, several products could see additional downward adjustments in the coming weeks.

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