Rupee Recovers Slightly Against Dollar, but High Crude Prices Remain a Concern

The Indian rupee has strengthened modestly over the past week, with the USD/INR exchange rate standing at ₹94.91 on October 31, 2026. The currency closed at ₹95.15 per dollar on October 26 and improved to ₹94.95 on October 30, indicating a recovery of around 20 paise.

The improvement has been supported by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures to manage dollar demand, a softer US dollar and improved domestic market sentiment. However, elevated crude oil prices continue to pose a major risk to the rupee.

Brent crude was trading around $114 per barrel on October 30. Since India depends heavily on imported crude oil, higher oil prices increase its import bill and demand for US dollars, putting pressure on the domestic currency. Expensive crude can also widen the trade deficit and increase imported inflation.

Although RBI intervention and measures to reduce dollar demand have supported the rupee, continued strength in crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty could limit further gains.

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