OPEC+ Likely to Increase July Oil Output Targets Despite Gulf Supply Disruptions

OPEC+ producers are expected to approve another modest increase in oil production targets for July during their upcoming June 7 meeting, even as ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran conflict continue affecting exports from the Gulf region.

According to market sources, the group is likely to raise output targets by around 188,000 barrels per day, continuing the gradual monthly production increases that began in April after maintaining stable output earlier this year.

However, several producers may struggle to fully supply the additional volumes due to ongoing export disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait — which hold significant spare production capacity within OPEC+ — are among the countries facing the biggest export challenges under the current situation.

Despite the expected increase in July targets, the broader OPEC+ strategy is likely to remain unchanged, including the existing group-wide production cut of 2 million barrels per day, which is currently planned to continue until the end of 2026.

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