Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude remaining above $100 in March amid Iran conflict risks

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to remain elevated in the short term as the ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets and threaten shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to media reports, the bank forecasts that Brent crude will average above $100 per barrel in March, before easing to around $85 per barrel in April. The outlook reflects ongoing volatility caused by damage to regional energy infrastructure and rising shipping risks across the Middle East.

On Friday morning, Brent crude for May delivery traded near $100 per barrel, after briefly surging to $119.50 earlier in the week, marking its highest level since mid-2022.

Despite the current strength in prices, Goldman Sachs still expects crude markets to soften later in the year if supply disruptions do not escalate further. Under this scenario, Brent could retreat to the low $70 range by late 2026.

However, the bank cautioned that a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would significantly tighten global supply balances. According to its analysis, a two-month closure of the key shipping route could raise its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to around $93 per barrel instead of $71.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs had already revised its price outlook upward, increasing its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $71 per barrel from $66, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was raised to $67 per barrel from $62.

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