Goldman: Renewed Hormuz Tensions Could Delay Middle East Oil Supply Recovery

Renewed security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz could slow the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supplies, according to a recent assessment by Goldman Sachs. The bank noted that recent attacks on oil tankers have disrupted shipping activity, causing crude exports from the Persian Gulf to fall back to nearly 70% of normal levels, reversing part of the recovery seen after the key shipping route reopened.

During June, oil production across the region remained approximately 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) below pre-conflict levels, as producers continued to gradually restore previously suspended output.

The bank believes the next phase of recovery will largely depend on how relations between the US and Iran evolve. If diplomatic negotiations continue, security conditions improve, and sanctions relief for Iranian oil resumes, crude exports and shipping activity could recover further by the end of July. However, any breakdown in talks or additional attacks on vessels could create fresh disruptions and delay the market's recovery.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted that many shipowners are likely to remain cautious until there is stronger confidence in the ceasefire and the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

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