Goldman raises oil outlook as supply risks intensify

Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price forecasts, citing escalating supply risks linked to the Middle East crisis. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $85 per barrel this year, up from its earlier estimate of $77, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to average $79 per barrel, revised from $72.

According to Goldman analysts, the ongoing crisis could lead to a peak supply disruption of up to 17 million barrels per day, reflecting the scale of impact on global oil flows.

At present, oil prices remain significantly elevated. Brent crude is trading around $112.69 per barrel, while WTI is near $99.60 per barrel, both rising as geopolitical tensions intensify ahead of a key deadline set by US President Donald Trump. The ultimatum calls for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face potential US strikes on its energy infrastructure. Iran has responded by warning of retaliation targeting energy and critical infrastructure across the region.

Goldman’s outlook assumes that disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will last approximately six weeks, followed by a gradual recovery in crude shipments over the subsequent month. The strait, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, has seen severe disruption following recent military escalations.

However, not all market observers share this relatively optimistic timeline. Some analysts caution that supply disruptions could persist for several months, even if hostilities ease in the near term.

Goldman noted that the current situation could represent one of the largest oil supply shocks in history, highlighting structural vulnerabilities in global energy markets. The concentration of production and spare capacity in the Middle East, along with the exposure of critical infrastructure, is expected to remain a key concern for policymakers and market participants going forward.

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