Falling Oil Prices Weaken PP and PE Sentiment in Turkey

The sharp decline in crude oil prices since early November has dampened sentiment across Turkey’s polymer markets this week. Buyers have become more cautious, while some sellers have reduced their earlier price increase targets. Initial discounts have appeared in import PP and PE markets for selected origins, while softer polyolefin prices in Asia have strengthened expectations of further corrections toward the end of 2026.

Brent crude futures have been moving lower since the US elections, as diplomatic signals have raised hopes of a possible easing of the Middle East conflict. Prices briefly fell below $90/bbl earlier this week before recovering to around $94/bbl during intraday trading on Wednesday. Despite this rebound, Brent was still more than $20/bbl below its early-November levels at the time of writing.

The weekly average for Brent crude has dropped by $24/bbl, or nearly 21%, from $116/bbl in late October to $92/bbl this week. However, the latest average remains $21/bbl, or almost 30%, above the pre-war average of $71/bbl recorded in late February. This suggests that although the recent decline has eased cost pressures considerably, energy prices continue to offer some support to polymer markets compared with levels before the Middle East conflict.

PP Fibre Sees First Discounts Despite Tight Supply

PP fibre, one of the grades facing the most significant supply constraints in Turkey’s polyolefin market, recorded downward price revisions this week. Egyptian suppliers, which had initially targeted November increases of $100-140/ton, offered discounts of $40-50/ton as demand remained sluggish. Southern European PP fibre offers also moved lower, with suppliers reducing prices by €40-50/ton after opening November with increases of €80-120/ton.

These adjustments indicated that declining energy prices were beginning to outweigh supply concerns, even for grades with limited availability. Buyers continued to delay fresh purchases as expectations of further discounts gained ground.

A PP fibre buyer commented, “Demand has virtually come to a standstill amid growing bearish expectations. With the Christmas lull approaching, our customers also prefer to close the year with low inventories. We have struggled to pass higher PP costs on to our finished product prices, and whenever we attempted to do so, orders from end users weakened noticeably.”

Market participants also monitored whether Saudi Arabian producers would revise their pricing strategies in response to the changing conditions. A source from one Saudi producer acknowledged that efforts to achieve $1400/ton CIF Turkey had failed to generate raffia deals. Another supplier confirmed that demand was slowing but said its December homo-PP allocations would remain limited.

Saudi PE Suppliers Lower Offers as Buyers Monitor US Prices

The PE market also showed early signs of sellers stepping back from their previous price targets. A major Saudi Arabian producer reduced its LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film offers by $20-40/ton from initial November levels, which had been nearly $100/ton above October prices. Another Saudi supplier lowered the upper end of its HDPE film price indications as buying interest weakened. A company source also reported receiving bids for HDPE blow moulding that were $20-30/ton below its asking prices.

These developments encouraged buyers to postpone replenishment in anticipation of more competitive offers. Attention also shifted to the next pricing decisions of US suppliers, particularly after their earlier attempts to raise November prices. So far, confirmed reductions among US origins have been limited to HDPE injection without UV additives, with deals reflecting discounts of $50/ton from previous levels.

Although broader PE market reductions have yet to emerge, lower energy costs and weakening Asian market trends have started to erode sellers’ pricing power. Whether other suppliers follow this direction will depend on crude oil movements, downstream demand and import availability in the coming weeks.

Oil Declines and Softer Asian Markets May Pressure Turkey Prices

The substantial losses in crude oil prices since early November have increased expectations of further price adjustments. However, limited prompt availability could prevent a sharp market downturn. Additional concessions may emerge if energy prices remain around current levels and import polyolefin prices in China, Southeast Asia and Egypt continue to soften, particularly as Turkish buyers delay purchases while waiting for better offers.

Some traders, however, believe persistent supply constraints could limit the scale of any downward corrections. Much will depend on upcoming pricing decisions by major producers and the arrival of delayed PP and PE cargoes from Iran, Russia and the Middle East.

“With year-end demand weakness and liquidity constraints also weighing on purchasing activity, selective declines appear increasingly possible, although a broader bearish trend would likely require a more sustained improvement in supply availability,” said a seller.

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