China PVC Rally Defies Holiday Slowdown and Supply Pressure

China’s PVC market extended its upward trend in the week ending February 13, defying thinner trading activity ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Local and export prices continued to rise on tightening supply expectations and pre-holiday restocking from both domestic and overseas buyers. Import offers also posted fresh gains following a new price hike announcement for March shipments from a major Taiwanese supplier, reinforcing bullish sentiment across Asia.

However, declining futures and the start of downstream holiday shutdowns have injected caution into the near-term outlook.

Local Market Posts Sixth Straight Weekly Gain

According to the ChemOrbis Price Index, ethylene-based PVC local prices increased by CNY150/ton ($22/ton), marking the sixth consecutive week of gains. Acetylene-based K67-68 prices rose by CNY50/ton ($7/ton), extending their uptrend into a third straight week.

Export prices for both grades climbed by $40/ton week on week, resuming their upward movement after a brief period of stabilization.

Despite firm spot activity, May PVC futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by CNY111/ton ($16/ton) on a weekly basis as of February 11, when price assessments were conducted. Futures continued to decline over the following two sessions, reflecting growing caution ahead of the holiday break.

Import Prices Resume Uptrend

On the import side, PVC prices were assessed $40–50/ton higher after two weeks of stability. US-origin offers rose by $40–50/ton at the lower end, although the overall range remained notionally assessed as suppliers continued to withhold fresh offers. Northeast Asian cargoes increased by $40/ton at the higher end of the range.

The rebound in imports followed the latest March pricing announcement from a major Taiwanese producer, which raised its K67 offers by $40/ton to $720/ton CIF China. This marked the second consecutive monthly increase and set a firmer tone for the broader regional market.

Mixed Signals as Holiday Nears

Market fundamentals presented a mixed picture. Some Taiwanese suppliers followed the major producer’s move with similar $40/ton hikes. Meanwhile, traders handling US cargoes indicated that American suppliers are expected to re-enter the market in March.

Domestically, maintenance at Wanhua Fujian and Shandong Hengtong is nearing completion, with operating rates expected to edge higher. At the same time, downstream operating rates are gradually declining as holiday shutdowns begin.

Exporters remain cautiously optimistic, noting that Southeast Asian buyers may secure additional volumes amid concerns over further price hikes. However, the continued strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has slightly reduced the competitiveness of Chinese PVC in overseas markets.

Overall, while tightening supply expectations and firm import cues continue to support the rally, softer futures and seasonal slowdowns may temper the pace of gains in the coming weeks.

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