China Port Congestion Raises Shipping Risks Ahead of Golden Week

Congestion at major Chinese container gateways is creating fresh uncertainty for global shipping ahead of Golden Week, with weather-related disruptions at Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan continuing to affect vessel schedules. At the same time, carriers are preparing capacity reductions around the holiday period, increasing the possibility that delays could extend into October even as freight rates from China remain under pressure.

The timing adds to the challenge. China’s Mid-Autumn Festival is scheduled for September 25-27, followed shortly by the October 1-7 National Day holiday. This leaves only three regular working days between the two holidays, giving ports, carriers and inland logistics networks a limited opportunity to clear existing backlogs before factory closures and reduced logistics activity begin.

Weather Disruptions Keep Shanghai and Ningbo Congested

Congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan increased earlier in September after weather interruptions temporarily restricted terminal operations and caused vessels to arrive outside their planned berthing windows.

Kuehne+Nagel data showed seven-day average vessel waiting times of 4.72 days at Shanghai and 3.58 days at Ningbo as of September 8. Conditions differed significantly between terminals, with waiting times exceeding nine days at Shanghai’s Waigaoqiao WGQ2 and WGQ5 facilities and surpassing seven days at Yangshan’s YS12 terminal. Yard utilization at Ningbo’s Meishan International Container Terminal was also above 90%.

The weather disruptions resulted in extended operational stoppages. Ningbo recorded a cumulative 78 hours of lost operations, while Shanghai’s Yangshan and Waigaoqiao terminals experienced approximately 54 and 48 hours of downtime, respectively.

Although terminal operations have resumed, the disruption can continue affecting schedules after the initial closures. Vessel bunching may delay subsequent port calls, keep capacity tied up for longer and create problems with feeder connections, equipment positioning and cargo movements across other parts of the network.

Linerlytica estimated in early September that more than 4 million TEU of global containership capacity was being absorbed by port congestion. The figure covers congestion across the worldwide network rather than China alone, but disruptions at Shanghai and Ningbo were among the contributing factors.

Port Delays Weigh on Global Schedule Reliability

The broader deterioration in vessel schedules shows how disruptions at individual ports can spread across wider shipping networks.

Sea-Intelligence reported that global schedule reliability dropped 6.1 percentage points to 56.4% in July, its lowest level of 2026 at that stage. Average delays for vessels arriving behind schedule increased to 6.06 days.

Chinese gateways recorded particularly weak performance. Only 21% of vessels calling at Shanghai arrived on schedule in July, while Ningbo posted schedule reliability of 34.6%. All 14 major Asian ports monitored by Sea-Intelligence experienced weaker reliability, pointing to broader regional schedule disruptions.

For carriers, delays at the beginning of a vessel’s rotation can continue affecting later port calls. As a result, congestion may continue to disrupt schedules even after waiting times at Shanghai and Ningbo start improving.

Golden Week Leaves Limited Recovery Time

The approaching holiday period could make schedule recovery more difficult. With only three normal working days between the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, shipping and inland logistics networks have little time to process accumulated cargo and restore delayed vessel rotations.

Export activity generally slows during Golden Week as factories and logistics operators close or reduce operations. Carriers typically respond by removing sailings as seasonal demand weakens. This year, however, the holiday period begins while cargo backlogs and vessel delays are already present, potentially reducing the usual operational relief from lower export volumes.

After factories reopen on October 7, cargo accumulated during the shutdown could reach ports in a concentrated wave, creating additional pressure on networks that are still working through earlier disruptions.

Freight Rates Continue to Decline Despite Congestion

The operational problems have yet to result in stronger freight rates. Major routes from China and East Asia to Europe remained under downward pressure during the latest week.

Freightos data showed China/East Asia-North Europe rates falling 15% week on week to $3,702 per 40ft container. China/East Asia-Mediterranean rates declined 7% to $3,881 per 40ft container.

The declines indicate that weaker demand and available capacity are still outweighing the immediate pricing impact of port congestion. However, blank sailings combined with disrupted vessel schedules could reduce effective capacity around the holiday period and potentially limit additional rate declines.

Shipping Disruptions May Continue Into October

Shipping schedules may not return to normal immediately after Golden Week. Some capacity reductions are expected to continue beyond the holiday, while vessels already delayed in late September could carry those disruptions into their following rotations.

Meanwhile, the return of more Asia-Europe services to the shorter Suez Canal route could release capacity that had been tied up by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced that four additional Gemini services — AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 — will shift to the Suez route, joining AE15 and AE19.

The October shipping outlook will therefore depend heavily on how quickly the current port backlogs are cleared. Softer seasonal demand and the gradual return to the Suez route are putting pressure on freight rates, while congestion, Golden Week blank sailings and weak schedule reliability are reducing effective capacity. If backlogs remain unresolved through the holiday and cargo volumes rise quickly after factories reopen, disruptions could continue across Asia-Europe shipping into October.

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