Barclays says extended Hormuz disruption could push Brent prices higher in 2026

Barclays has cautioned that its 2026 Brent crude oil price outlook could move significantly higher if disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue for an extended period. While the bank has maintained its base-case forecasts of $96/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl for 2027, it believes prolonged shipping disruptions could drive prices well above those projections.

According to the bank, if the current disruption continues for one month, Brent prices in 2026 could average around $2/bbl above its forecast. A disruption lasting two months could lift prices by approximately $7/bbl, while a three-month disruption could increase the average by nearly $10/bbl. Barclays also noted that spot prices could react much more sharply, with Brent potentially reaching $150/bbl under the three-month disruption scenario.

Crude oil prices briefly climbed above $100/bbl earlier this week after renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that handles around 20% of global energy shipments. Although prices eased toward the end of the week, Barclays believes the duration of the disruption will remain the key factor influencing oil market direction.

Looking further ahead, the bank said that while global oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight during 2026, the outlook for 2027 could change. Higher exports from Gulf producers, resilient US oil production and softer demand growth from China could gradually shift the market into an oversupply situation, placing downward pressure on prices.

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