Asia propylene softens in Northeast Asia as weak downstream demand weighs, while Southeast Asia holds firm

Propylene markets across Asia showed a split trend this week, with Northeast Asia resuming its downward movement due to weak demand from derivatives, while Southeast Asia remained stable supported by tight regional supply.

Market sentiment continues to be influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly around potential US-Iran negotiations. While a possible easing of tensions could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, traders believe shipping patterns may not fully return to normal even if restrictions are lifted. Higher insurance costs, rerouted vessels, and shifting trade flows are expected to have a lasting impact on global logistics.

Meanwhile, oil markets remain volatile, with Brent crude moving above $114 per barrel during the week amid uncertainty over a lasting ceasefire.

Northeast Asia: Prices decline under demand pressure

In Northeast Asia, propylene prices dropped by $40/ton this week to $1320/ton CFR, extending a three-week downtrend. Despite the decline, prices remain elevated compared to earlier levels, following a sharp rally of around $530/ton since late February.

The correction is mainly driven by weak performance in downstream sectors such as polypropylene (PP), acrylonitrile, cumene, and phenol. Reduced margins in these segments have lowered buying interest for propylene, while narrowing spreads—especially between propylene and PP—have further pressured demand.

Offers for cargoes from South Korea and Japan were heard at $1400–1450/ton CFR, while bids for early May arrivals were lower at $1280–1290/ton, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment.

On the domestic front, China’s pricing showed mixed signals. While a major producer increased its list price by CNY300/ton ($44/ton) to CNY9200/ton ($1191/ton without VAT), spot prices in East China and Shandong remained stable at CNY9100–9200/ton.

Supply dynamics have also shifted, with some PDH units restarting after maintenance. A 750,000 tons/year unit in Yantai resumed operations in late April, while a 600,000 tons/year plant in Dongying came back online earlier in the month, adding to domestic supply.

At the same time, outages continue to provide partial support. A major refinery unit in Taiwan with propylene capacity of around 450,000 tons/year remains offline following a fire and is expected to stay shut until mid-year.

Price snapshot (Propylene)
CFR China: $1320/ton (▼ $40)
Bids: $1280–1290
Offers: $1400–1450
CFR Southeast Asia: $1400/ton (stable)
Bids: $1340–1350
Offers: $1460–1500

The price gap between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia has widened, with Southeast Asia now holding a premium of around $80/ton.

Southeast Asia: Stability supported by tight supply

In Southeast Asia, propylene prices stabilized after falling over the previous two weeks. The market has been supported by ongoing supply tightness due to multiple plant shutdowns, maintenance activities, and reduced operating rates.

Although prices have eased by about $100/ton over the past two weeks, they are currently holding near $1400/ton CFR. Some buying activity has been seen, including deals around $1400–1410/ton for early May deliveries into Indonesia.

Healthy production margins are also supporting the market. With propane feedstock costs remaining significantly lower than propylene prices, producers—especially PDH operators—continue to maintain positive margins and may look to increase operating rates where possible.

Supply constraints to persist into Q2

Supply tightness across Southeast Asia is expected to continue into the second quarter due to ongoing disruptions:

A major cracker in Malaysia remains shut since mid-March with no confirmed restart
A key unit in Kertih is scheduled for shutdown from April to June
A large cracker in Thailand remains offline following earlier disruptions
Several producers across the region are operating at reduced rates

Additionally, a large petrochemical complex in Vietnam is expected to shut its cracker unit in mid-May due to feedstock constraints, further tightening supply.

Outlook: Market remains balanced between weak demand and tight supply

Going forward, the propylene market is likely to remain under pressure from weak downstream demand, particularly in Northeast Asia. However, tight supply conditions—especially in Southeast Asia—are expected to limit further downside.

The market will continue to track geopolitical developments, crude oil trends, and feedstock availability, all of which will play a key role in determining price direction in the coming weeks.

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