Asia Propylene: Prices Swing on Extreme Oil Volatility; CFR China Nears 4-Year High

Asian propylene prices moved in highly volatile cycles as crude oil futures fluctuated sharply amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Spot prices across both Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia surged during the first trading week after the US–Iran war erupted and continued to swing dramatically in line with crude movements.

Petrochemical markets across Asia remain unsettled as the conflict disrupts oil production and shipping routes across the region, tightening energy supply chains. Crude oil initially rallied on fears of prolonged supply disruptions before reversing sharply after US President Donald Trump suggested the war could be nearing an end. May Brent futures briefly approached $120/bbl on Monday before plunging below $86/bbl the following day.

Propylene prices mirrored these sharp movements. Spot prices climbed rapidly alongside crude before correcting during the oil sell-off. Despite these swings, propylene prices still ended the week significantly higher across both Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. The CFR Southeast Asia discount to China narrowed to $30/ton as Southeast Asian prices surged.

Propylene Price Snapshot (US$/ton)
CFR China – 1100 (▲200) | Bids: 1080–1090 | Offers: 1180–1200
CFR Southeast Asia – 1070 (▲280) | Bids: 1050–1060 | Offers: 1100–1150

Prices in Northeast Asia and China continued their upward momentum, approaching four-year highs, according to ChemOrbis Price Wizard data. NEA/China propylene prices reached $1230/ton on Monday before dropping about $100/ton to $1130/ton on Tuesday, highlighting the extreme volatility. Even with the sharp correction, prices closed the week around $200/ton higher amid tightening regional supply.

Market participants say the biggest concern remains supply availability, particularly as shipping logistics around the Persian Gulf remain disrupted and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled.

Regional supply has tightened further following a series of force majeure declarations across Asia. South Korea’s YNCC announced force majeure due to feedstock disruptions, while Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) declared force majeure on some petrochemical supplies after feedstock deliveries were affected by the Middle East conflict. China’s Wanhua Chemical also declared force majeure on March 7, citing disruptions in shipping, logistics, and port operations.

As a result, many sellers remain reluctant to issue firm offers due to supply risks. Sell indications for mixed South Korean and Southeast Asian origins climbed to $1180–1200/ton CFR NEA/China, while trader bids reached $1080–1090/ton for early April arrivals.

Inside China, Sinopec raised propylene prices by CNY1400/ton ($204/ton) to CNY8900/ton ($1147/ton without VAT) this week. Spot prices in East China and Shandong also increased by CNY1600–1650/ton ($233–240/ton) to CNY8900–9000/ton ($1147–1160/ton without VAT).

Meanwhile, Southeast Asian prices posted the largest gains, rising $280/ton, or nearly 36% for the week, supported by tight supply and strong arbitrage flows between Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia.

Traders say the market is facing unprecedented uncertainty, with producers, traders, and end users reacting to developments almost daily as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and crude oil volatility continue to reshape the Asian petrochemical landscape.

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