Southeast Asia PVC Prices Ease After 28% Rally

Southeast Asia’s import PVC market has recorded its first decline since mid-July, ending a prolonged rally that lifted prices by around 28%. After rising almost continuously, apart from one or two stable weeks, CIF Southeast Asia PVC prices reached a more than four-month high last week before turning lower this week.

The correction indicates that the cost-driven upward trend is losing momentum as weak downstream demand and increasing buyer resistance outweigh elevated production and logistics costs. Regional and Chinese suppliers have begun lowering offers, while some transactions have been concluded below initial asking prices as sellers seek to stimulate buying.

First Weekly Decline Since July

CIF Southeast Asia PVC prices posted their first weekly decrease since mid-July, following a sustained advance that resulted in cumulative gains of approximately 28%.

The earlier rally was largely supported by higher production and logistics expenses rather than stronger downstream consumption. As prices moved higher, the gap between replacement costs and actual demand became increasingly difficult to maintain.

Buyers largely resisted expensive offers, with many holding sufficient inventories and avoiding significant restocking. This eventually encouraged sellers to reassess their pricing.

The change became evident this week, with local and regional suppliers reducing offers amid poor demand. A Vietnamese trader reported a $25/ton weekly reduction in its offers, citing weak buying interest. Regional suppliers were also heard lowering prices, while some deals were concluded below quoted levels.

In Indonesia, a supplier reportedly sold PVC at $810/ton after initially offering around $830-840/ton, representing discounts of approximately $20-30/ton.

Lower Offers Spread Across the Region

Chinese suppliers have also reduced export offers to Southeast Asia. One trader reported $10/ton reductions for both ethylene-based and carbide-based PVC. Thai-origin material was also heard at lower levels, adding to the increasingly competitive regional market.

Import availability could become temporarily tighter as Chinese suppliers prepare for the National Day holiday beginning October 1. However, any short-term reduction in offers from China would not necessarily signal an improvement in underlying demand.

Cost support has remained relatively firm but has not prevented the latest correction. Brent crude continued to fluctuate, while spot ethylene prices were stable early in the week, providing limited additional support for PVC sellers.

A Vietnamese end-product producer noted growing concerns among traders about further price declines, encouraging market participants to delay purchases rather than build inventories.

October Increases Struggle to Gain Acceptance

The market reversal follows last week’s increases in Southeast Asian domestic and import PVC prices after a major Taiwanese producer raised its October export offers to Asian buyers by $10/ton.

Other suppliers initially attempted to follow the move, but the higher levels struggled to gain market acceptance. Weak downstream demand and the availability of competitively priced alternatives continued to discourage buyers.

A regional converter said buyers were reluctant to purchase at the Taiwanese producer’s levels because end-product demand remained weak and inventories were adequate. A Vietnamese trader likewise reported limited buyer interest in the higher offers.

Signs of weakness had already appeared in Vietnam’s domestic market, where sellers began cutting prices amid poor downstream demand and favorable currency movements that reduced replacement costs.

In Thailand, some converters expect consumption to improve with the approaching dry season, although comfortable inventories have so far reduced the need for immediate replenishment.

Overall, the latest decline represents a significant shift after the 28% rally since mid-July. Elevated energy, feedstock and freight costs continue to provide cost support, but weak consumption, sufficient inventories and increasing availability of lower-priced material are making further PVC price increases more difficult to sustain.

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