Southeast Asia PE Market Slides Further as US Offers Hit Fresh Lows

Import PE markets across Southeast Asia remained under heavy pressure this week, with prices extending their decline across all major film grades. Aggressive US-origin offers continued to set the market direction, pushing several benchmarks to fresh multi-month lows and reinforcing expectations that prices may weaken further in the coming weeks.

Buyers largely remained cautious, preferring to delay purchases as falling crude oil prices, ample supply, and weak downstream demand continued to weigh on market sentiment.

US Material Drives Market Lower

The sharpest price reductions were seen in US-origin cargoes, particularly in the LLDPE and HDPE film segments.

For LDPE film, US offers were reported at $1200-1220/ton CIF Vietnam, down by approximately $100/ton from the previous week. However, most of these offers were linked to July-August shipments, meaning material would arrive much later in the year, limiting immediate buying interest.

Saudi-origin LDPE film was offered near $1250/ton CIF Vietnam, also reflecting a decline of around $100/ton week-on-week. While some suppliers maintained significantly higher indications, buyers viewed those levels as uncompetitive under current market conditions.

LLDPE film experienced even stronger downward pressure. Some US-origin deals were reported as low as $880/ton CIF Vietnam, pushing prices below the key $1000/ton level for the first time during the current correction cycle. Other US offers ranged between $880-980/ton CIF, depending on supplier and shipment timing.

Chinese LLDPE offers were mainly reported at $1060-1110/ton CIF Southeast Asia, while Thai material was heard around $1070/ton CIF. Saudi suppliers generally remained higher at $1100-1200/ton CIF.

In HDPE film, US-origin offers were assessed at $980-1050/ton CIF Vietnam, with the lowest levels also falling below the $1000/ton mark. Thai-origin transactions were reported around $1075/ton CIF, while Saudi offers started from approximately $1150/ton CIF.

Falling Crude and Feedstocks Add Pressure

The latest downturn has been driven by a combination of lower energy prices and intense competition among suppliers.

Market participants noted that the decline in crude oil prices following improving geopolitical conditions has dragged down naphtha, ethylene, and propylene markets, weakening production cost support across the petrochemical chain.

At the same time, exporters from the US Gulf Coast, China, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East continue competing aggressively for limited demand, making it difficult for sellers to defend previous price levels.

Several traders also reported that some suppliers have become reluctant to actively market cargoes, preferring private negotiations as buyers continue waiting for lower prices.

Demand Remains Slow Across the Region

Buying activity across Southeast Asia remained subdued, with most converters maintaining hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies.

Many buyers continue to delay replenishment plans as prices have fallen almost every week and domestic demand remains weak. Market participants in Vietnam and Indonesia reported improved material availability and greater flexibility from traders, making negotiations easier than in previous months.

The abundance of offers has given buyers more sourcing options, while declining local prices have further reduced the urgency to import large volumes.

Buyers Still Watching for Further Corrections

Although some processors have started evaluating selective purchases at current levels, most buyers believe additional downside remains possible.

One of the key reasons is that PE prices are still carrying a portion of the premium created during the Middle East conflict earlier this year.

Current market estimates indicate that import LDPE film prices remain around $230/ton above pre-conflict levels, while HDPE film still carries a premium of approximately $200/ton and LLDPE film around $150/ton.

As feedstock markets continue to soften and supply remains plentiful, many buyers expect part of these remaining premiums to disappear over the coming weeks.

Outlook Remains Bearish

With supply availability improving, competition intensifying, and downstream demand remaining weak, market conditions continue to favor buyers.

Unless demand shows meaningful improvement, PE prices in Southeast Asia are expected to remain under pressure as the market continues to unwind the gains accumulated during the earlier conflict-driven rally.

Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.