SE Asia PVC Prices Return to Pre-War Levels, Market Eyes $600/ton Mark

Southeast Asia's import PVC market has completed a full correction from the sharp rally seen earlier this year, with prices falling back to levels recorded before the Middle East conflict. After nearly three months of continuous declines, import offers have returned to pre-war territory as weak demand, ample supply, and aggressive competition continue to weigh on the market.

Recent transactions for Chinese ethylene-based PVC K67 were reported around $610/ton CIF Vietnam, while US-origin material was offered at $630-640/ton CIF. The latest levels have brought the market within close reach of the key $600/ton benchmark, a level many participants are now watching closely.

The current downturn effectively erases the entire conflict-driven premium that emerged during the first quarter of the year. At the peak of the rally, concerns over feedstock availability, logistics disruptions, and rising freight costs pushed PVC prices to multi-year highs. However, improving supply conditions, lower freight rates, falling energy costs, and weak downstream demand have steadily pulled the market lower since then.

Chinese suppliers continue to lead the decline by offering increasingly competitive cargoes in an effort to secure sales. Several buyers in Vietnam confirmed purchases near $610/ton CIF, while sellers remain under pressure due to sluggish demand across key export destinations.

US-origin PVC has also become more competitive, adding further pressure to the market. Despite the lower offers, buying activity remains limited as many processors continue to purchase only for immediate requirements, expecting additional price reductions in the coming weeks.

Chinese producers are facing a challenging environment both domestically and internationally. Weak construction activity, slow demand from downstream sectors, and high inventory levels continue to weigh on the domestic market. Export opportunities have also become more difficult as demand in major destinations remains subdued.

India's monsoon season and uncertainty surrounding import policy decisions have reduced purchasing activity, prompting many Chinese exporters to focus more heavily on Southeast Asian markets. This additional supply has intensified competition and contributed to the ongoing price weakness.

Market participants generally expect PVC to remain under pressure in the near term. While some producers are facing margin pressure and may consider reducing operating rates, supply remains comfortable and demand recovery remains elusive.

Attention is now centered on whether the market will break below the $600/ton CIF level. With buyers maintaining a cautious approach and no major demand catalyst visible at present, the $600 mark is increasingly viewed as the next key price level for Southeast Asia's import PVC market.

Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211