India, SE Asia Import PVC Gives Back Most War-Driven Gains; China Domestic Already Returns to January Lows

PVC markets across Asia have largely surrendered the gains generated during the US-Iran conflict, as weak demand and ample supply continue to pressure prices. After reaching multi-year highs in March and April, prices in China, Southeast Asia, Vietnam, and India have steadily moved lower, with some benchmarks now trading at or even below pre-conflict levels.

China’s domestic PVC market has seen the sharpest reversal. Prices that surged during the conflict have now fallen back to levels last seen in January. Rising operating rates, weak futures performance, and persistent oversupply concerns have outweighed any remaining support from earlier geopolitical tensions. Sluggish activity in the construction and property sectors has further limited demand recovery.

China’s export PVC market has followed a similar path. Export prices have declined steadily over recent months and now sit only slightly above pre-conflict levels. Weak buying interest from overseas markets and abundant regional supply have continued to weigh on exporters despite previous policy changes that offered some support.

Across Southeast Asia, import PVC prices have also retreated significantly from their highs. The market has been pressured by slow demand from construction-related sectors, particularly during the rainy season, while buyers continue to purchase only for immediate requirements. As a result, suppliers have repeatedly adjusted offers lower to stimulate sales.

Vietnam remains one of the markets that experienced both a sharp rally and a significant correction. Although local prices have dropped considerably from their peak, they still remain somewhat above levels seen before the conflict. Weak downstream demand and increasing availability of competitively priced cargoes from Northeast Asia continue to keep sentiment bearish.

India’s import PVC market has mirrored the broader regional trend. Prices have moved steadily lower as buyers remain cautious and avoid building inventories. Ample supply availability and uncertainty surrounding trade policies have encouraged most participants to maintain a wait-and-watch approach.

The latest market developments suggest that the geopolitical premium which once lifted PVC prices across Asia has largely disappeared. Market direction is now being driven mainly by fundamentals, including weak demand, comfortable supply conditions, and softer energy markets. With several key benchmarks only a short distance from pre-conflict levels, the focus has shifted away from geopolitical concerns and back toward underlying market conditions.

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