Goldman Sachs raises oil price outlook again amid ongoing supply concerns

Goldman Sachs has once again increased its oil price forecast, now expecting Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to average about $83 per barrel.

Currently, Brent crude is trading near $106.68 per barrel, with WTI at approximately $95.35, as uncertainty continues around stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The bank’s analysts highlighted that economic risks are rising due to higher crude prices, elevated refined product prices, potential shortages, and the scale of the ongoing supply disruption. These factors are putting additional pressure on global markets.

Goldman Sachs also noted that the current supply shock is beginning to impact demand. The bank expects global oil demand to decline by around 1.7 million barrels per day during the current quarter, and by about 100,000 barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025 levels.

Analysts warned that continued inventory drawdowns are not sustainable, and if supply disruptions persist, further demand destruction may be required. The bank estimates that approximately 14.5 million barrels per day of oil production in the Middle East remains offline.

Other market analysts also pointed out that the lack of progress in peace talks is tightening supply conditions, pushing prices higher. While inventories may temporarily bridge the gap, prolonged disruption could keep prices elevated and further weaken demand.

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