China PP Holds Firm, But Early Signs of Softening Appear

China’s polypropylene (PP) market continues to retain most of the gains recorded during the Middle East supply disruption period, performing better than PE and PVC markets that have already seen sharper corrections. However, recent developments indicate that the market may be entering a softer phase, with both import and export prices slipping below the $1200/ton mark.

Import PP Prices Move Below Key Level

Import homo-PP raffia offers have recently fallen to around $1170/ton CIF China, cash, dropping below the psychological $1200/ton threshold. Improved availability from Middle Eastern suppliers, combined with weak downstream demand and increasing competition among exporters, has pressured prices lower.

Despite the decline, import PP values remain significantly above pre-conflict levels and are still near multi-year highs.

Domestic Market Supported by Tight Supply

Unlike imports, China's domestic PP market remains relatively firm due to ongoing supply constraints.

A large number of maintenance shutdowns and reduced operating rates have tightened spot availability across the country. June alone accounts for more than 1 million tons of offline PP production capacity, helping support local prices despite weak seasonal demand.

Market participants report that producers continue to manage output carefully, while stronger futures and crude oil prices have also provided additional support to sentiment.

Demand Remains Weak

Although supply conditions remain supportive, consumption continues to lag.

Many downstream industries are operating at lower rates due to seasonal weakness, while buyers are mainly purchasing material only for immediate production requirements. Transaction activity remains limited, preventing stronger price gains.

Export Market Faces Growing Pressure

China's PP export market has also weakened, with homo-PP raffia offers falling to around $1170/ton FOB China.

Demand from Southeast Asia has slowed noticeably, while improving supply availability from the Middle East and recovering regional production have increased competition. As a result, Chinese exporters are facing greater challenges in securing new orders.

At the same time, relatively firm domestic prices and a stronger Chinese yuan have limited exporters' ability to reduce offers aggressively.

Market Outlook

China's PP market remains more resilient than other polymer segments thanks to supply-side support. However, weakening export demand, improving overseas supply, and softer import prices suggest that the momentum from the earlier rally is gradually fading. Market direction in the coming weeks will largely depend on whether supply tightness can continue to offset sluggish demand conditions.

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