China Moves Closer to PE Trade Balance as Imports Hit Decade Low

China’s polyethylene (PE) trade landscape continued to undergo a major transformation in May 2026, with imports falling to their lowest monthly level in nearly ten years while exports remained exceptionally strong. The latest figures highlight how rapidly China is narrowing the gap between imports and exports, reinforcing its growing role as a major supplier to global PE markets.

Import-Export Gap Shrinks to Record Low

China exported more than 520,000 tons of PE in May. Although this was 5% lower than April’s record high, export volumes remained 385% above the level seen a year earlier, reflecting the country's expanding presence in overseas markets.

Meanwhile, PE imports dropped sharply to around 550,000 tons, down 25% from April and 52% from May 2025. As a result, China’s net PE imports narrowed to approximately 27,000 tons, the smallest gap between imports and exports since records began in 2000.

Despite remaining a net importer, China came remarkably close to balancing its PE trade position, a scenario that would have seemed unlikely just a few years ago.

Exports Stay Strong While Imports Continue to Decline

Exports remained above the 500,000-ton mark for a second consecutive month, demonstrating China's growing ability to place surplus material into international markets whenever competitive opportunities arise.

At the same time, shrinking import volumes reflected weaker domestic demand, increasing local production, and changing global trade patterns. Historically, China relied heavily on imported PE, with annual import volumes exceeding 14 million tons. However, the latest data indicates that domestic production is increasingly replacing imported material.

Southeast Asia Remains the Primary Destination

Vietnam continued to be the largest buyer of Chinese PE exports in May, accounting for 13% of total shipments. Malaysia and Brazil each represented 8%, while Indonesia accounted for 7%.

The strong presence of Southeast Asian destinations highlights the region’s increasing reliance on Chinese cargoes, particularly during periods when traditional suppliers face logistical or supply challenges.

Brazil’s position among the leading destinations also reflects China's growing willingness to expand beyond its traditional Asian export markets as global trade flows continue to evolve.

HDPE Drives Export Growth

Among PE grades, HDPE remained the leading export product in May, with shipments approaching 250,000 tons despite a 9% decline from April.

LLDPE exports exceeded 160,000 tons, although volumes were 11% lower month-on-month. In contrast, LDPE was the only major grade to record growth, rising 14% from April and surpassing 100,000 tons.

On the import side, weakness was evident across key grades. HDPE imports declined 17% from April and 50% from a year earlier, while LLDPE imports fell 27% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year.

Capacity Expansion Continues to Reshape the Market

While recent Middle East supply disruptions created favorable export opportunities for Chinese suppliers, the country's growing export strength is supported by a much broader structural shift.

Between 2023 and 2025, China added approximately 10.93 million tons/year of new PE capacity. An additional 800,000 tons/year has already started production in 2026, while around 6.1 million tons/year of further capacity is expected to come online during the remainder of the year if projects proceed as scheduled.

These investments have significantly expanded domestic production capabilities, allowing China to reduce dependence on imports while increasing its ability to compete in export markets.

Long-Term Outlook Remains Focused on Growth

Although China's recently announced energy-efficiency and decarbonization initiatives may create uncertainty for some older production facilities in the longer term, their immediate impact on PE supply is expected to be limited.

For now, market participants remain focused on the country's expanding production base and growing export capability. Even if global supply conditions normalize, China appears increasingly positioned to play a much larger role in regional and international PE trade than it has in the past.

The latest trade data suggests that China's transition from a predominantly import-driven market toward a more balanced and export-oriented PE industry is gaining momentum.

Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.