Brent crosses $111 as prolonged Hormuz disruption pushes oil outlook higher

Oil prices continued to climb during Tuesday’s Asian trading session, with Brent crude moving above $111 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for over eight weeks and there is no clear progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

In early European hours, Brent futures were up by 2.61% at $111.10 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude gained around 3% to trade near $99.26, approaching the $100 mark.

Markets are increasingly factoring in a longer disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that previously handled about 20% of global oil and LNG shipments before the conflict began. Initially, many analysts had expected the blockage to be short-term, with a possible reopening in April.

However, as of April 28, there are no clear indications of a near-term reopening. Diplomatic talks have stalled, and recent signals from U.S. leadership suggest negotiations may not resume unless major conditions are met.

With the disruption now stretching into its ninth week, analysts are revising their expectations for supply recovery and adjusting price forecasts upward. ING has raised its projections, citing stalled negotiations and continued restrictions on flows through Hormuz.

The bank now expects Brent crude to average around $104 per barrel in the second quarter, up from its earlier estimate of $96. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Brent is projected to average करीब $92 per barrel, compared to a previous forecast of $88.

ING also noted that oil flows through the Strait may begin to recover gradually in the coming months but are likely to remain below pre-conflict levels for most of the year. Tight inventories and the need for restocking are expected to keep prices supported.

Separately, Goldman Sachs has also revised its oil outlook higher, projecting Brent to average around $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, with WTI expected at approximately $83 per barrel, reflecting ongoing supply concerns and market tightness.

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