Asia Ethylene: Southeast Asia Prices Tumble on Heavy Selling; Northeast Asia Declines Moderate

Asian ethylene markets remained under pressure this week, with Southeast Asia witnessing a sharper drop as traders aggressively lowered offers to clear prompt cargoes. Rising supply expectations, weak downstream demand, and softer feedstock values continued to weigh on sentiment across the region.

The market has now been declining for nearly two months, although losses in Northeast Asia were less severe compared to Southeast Asia, indicating that the pace of correction may be starting to slow.

Ethylene Market Snapshot

CFR China — $920/ton
Down by $30/ton week-on-week

• Bid indications: $890-910/ton
• Offer indications: $950-1000/ton

CFR Southeast Asia — $950/ton
Down by $100/ton week-on-week

• Bid indications: $900-930/ton
• Offer indications: $1000-1050/ton

Southeast Asia Faces Strong Selling Pressure

Southeast Asian ethylene prices recorded the steepest decline among regional markets this week as traders rushed to move excess June cargoes. Spot values have now fallen by nearly 37% from the highs seen in early April.

Market participants said expectations surrounding the restart of major Malaysian production facilities have significantly increased supply concerns. The anticipated return of Pengerang-based units is expected to add fresh volumes into an already weak market.

Several traders reported bids below $950/ton CFR Southeast Asia, with some transactions concluded around $950/ton for prompt cargoes.

Despite the sharp correction, market participants noted that demand weakness, rather than severe oversupply, remains the primary driver behind the recent price slide.

Key Regional Plant Developments

PRefChem, Malaysia
• 1.29 million tons/year cracker
• Restart expected in mid-June

Petronas No. 2, Malaysia
• 600,000 tons/year cracker
• Restart expected in late June

Petronas No. 1, Malaysia
• Operating at around 90% rates

Aster Chemicals & Energy, Singapore
• Running at reduced rates of 50-60%

ExxonMobil, Singapore
• Older 900,000 tons/year cracker permanently shut

ExxonMobil, Singapore (second cracker)
• Operating around 60-70%

Chandra Asri, Indonesia
• Running at reduced rates of 50-60%

Lotte Chemical Indonesia
• Operating around 65%

SCG Rayong Olefins, Thailand
• Remains offline with restart timeline unclear

PTTGC, Thailand
• Running around 60-70%

Long Son Petrochemical, Vietnam
• Remains shut following feedstock-related issues

Northeast Asia Market Remains Weak

Ethylene prices in China and Northeast Asia also moved lower, although the decline was more moderate compared with Southeast Asia.

Market participants reported that increasing domestic supply, higher cracker operating rates, and weaker demand from downstream sectors such as PE, PVC, styrene monomer, MEG, and ethylene oxide continued to pressure the market.

China has increasingly become an exporter of spot ethylene cargoes as domestic inventories rise and local demand remains subdued. Producers have reportedly been targeting buyers across Taiwan and Southeast Asia to reduce inventory pressure.

Recent deals for June cargoes were heard in the low-$920-930/ton CFR China/Taiwan range.

South Korean Crackers Increase Operating Rates

Several South Korean producers have maintained higher operating rates following improved margins earlier this year:

• GS Caltex Yeosu cracker increased to 75-80% utilization

• Lotte Chemical Daesan cracker increased to around 85%

• Hanwha Total Daesan cracker increased to around 90%

• KPIC Onsan cracker increased to approximately 75%

However, traders noted that shrinking margins may encourage another round of production cuts if market conditions fail to improve in the coming weeks.

Market Outlook

The regional ethylene market remains under pressure from weak derivative demand and growing supply availability. While the sharp fall in Southeast Asia highlights ongoing bearish sentiment, the slower pace of decline in Northeast Asia suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced phase.

Unless downstream demand improves meaningfully or producers reduce operating rates, prices are likely to remain under pressure through the remainder of June.

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