Asia Ethylene Prices Double Amid War Disruptions, India Clarifies Scope of PVC Duty Probe

Ethylene markets across Asia have recorded a sharp surge since the onset of the Middle East conflict, with prices in both Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia more than doubling over the past five weeks. Despite this strong rally, recent data indicates that the pace of increases has begun to slow, even as supply conditions remain tight.

Price gains have been driven by severe feedstock shortages and widespread production disruptions, pushing values above 100% compared to pre-war levels. However, the latest weekly movements were relatively moderate, reflecting a cooling sentiment as volatility in crude oil failed to trigger fresh aggressive buying.

Ethylene Price Overview ($/ton)
CFR China: $1460 (up $10)
Bids: $1450–1460
Offers: $1550–1600
CFR Southeast Asia: $1450 (up $30)
Bids: $1430–1450
Offers: $1500–1550

The price difference between the two regions has narrowed significantly, indicating stronger demand in Southeast Asia.

Supply Tightness Persists Across Asia

In Northeast Asia, buyers have continued to secure cargoes to meet near-term requirements, supporting prices despite only marginal weekly increases. Ongoing disruptions in feedstock availability have made production planning increasingly uncertain, prompting several producers to scale back operations.

Countries heavily dependent on imported naphtha have taken precautionary steps to safeguard domestic supply, while multiple petrochemical players have reduced operating rates due to constrained crude availability. These factors have kept supply tight across the region.

In Southeast Asia, supply shortages have been even more pronounced, leading to stronger price gains. Limited availability, coupled with ongoing plant shutdowns and maintenance activities, has forced buyers to look toward Northeast Asia for additional cargoes.

Reduced operating rates across major crackers in the region, along with force majeure declarations by several producers, have further tightened supply and supported the upward trend.

India Moves Ahead with PVC Import Duty Investigation

Amid these global market shifts, India has provided clarity on its ongoing countervailing duty investigation into imports of suspension-grade PVC from China.

According to a recent notification issued by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) on April 2, the probe will specifically focus on suspension PVC resin produced through the suspension polymerisation process, covering K-values above 55 and up to 77.

The scope excludes several categories, including ultra-low and ultra-high K-value resins, chlorinated PVC (CPVC), copolymers, emulsion and paste PVC, as well as other specialized grades produced through different polymerisation methods.

Authorities have also decided not to adopt a product control number (PCN) framework, meaning the investigation will proceed on a broader product classification rather than detailed segmentation by individual grades.

All stakeholders have been directed to submit their responses based on the revised scope by April 19, 2026, with no extensions expected due to the time-sensitive nature of the investigation.

Outlook: Elevated Prices Likely to Persist

While the rapid pace of the ethylene rally has started to moderate, the overall market remains firmly supported by tight supply conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Unless feedstock flows improve or production levels recover meaningfully, prices are expected to stay elevated in the near term.

At the same time, regulatory developments such as India’s PVC duty investigation could further influence regional trade flows, adding another layer of complexity to an already volatile petrochemical landscape.

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