MarketsFriday, 3 July 2026·India
Asia Ethylene Prices Extend Fall as Market Nears Pre-War Levels
Asian ethylene markets continued to weaken this week, with spot prices in both Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia dropping to fresh multi-month lows. Persistent selling pressure, weak downstream demand, falling feedstock costs and cautious buying sentiment continued to drag prices lower across the region.
Despite the sharp correction, ethylene prices still remain around $110-120/ton above levels seen before the Middle East conflict, indicating that while most of the geopolitical premium has disappeared, some gains are still embedded in the market.
Market participants noted that naphtha values have almost returned to pre-conflict levels, while crude oil prices have remained under pressure following easing concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, producers and traders have continued offering cargoes aggressively for July loading.
However, several traders believe the market is approaching a bottom. With ethylene prices now near cash-cost levels for many naphtha crackers, further declines may become increasingly difficult unless feedstock costs weaken further.
Ethylene Price Snapshot
CFR China
Latest Price: $830/ton
Weekly Change: ▼ $30/ton
Bid Range: $780-790/ton
Offer Range: $850-900/ton
CFR Southeast Asia
Latest Price: $800/ton
Weekly Change: ▼ $50/ton
Bid Range: $770-780/ton
Offer Range: $850-900/ton
Southeast Asia recorded the sharper decline this week as active spot selling pushed prices down for a twelfth consecutive week. A Japanese supplier reportedly sold cargoes to Thailand at around $790-800/ton CFR for mid-July delivery, establishing a new market benchmark below the $850/ton levels seen a week earlier.
Over the past two weeks alone, Southeast Asian ethylene prices have dropped nearly 12%, while values have plunged more than 50% from the peak recorded in early April. Buyers have started returning to the spot market selectively, believing prices may be nearing a floor.
Many producers are now facing negative margins. Market sources indicated that some South Korean and Chinese cracker operators are evaluating potential run-rate reductions as profitability continues to deteriorate.
Additional supply is expected to enter the market during July following the restart of several regional crackers, particularly in Malaysia. The return of these facilities is likely to keep supply comfortable despite weak demand conditions.
In Northeast Asia, prices also moved lower as buyers remained cautious. Weak demand from polyethylene, PVC, styrene monomer and MEG sectors continued to limit purchasing activity. Lower feedstock costs and improving supply conditions added further pressure to the market.
Chinese domestic ethylene prices softened during the week, while several downstream industries maintained a cautious stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Traders reported limited spot buying interest despite relatively balanced domestic availability.
At the same time, several crackers across China and Taiwan continue to operate at reduced rates due to feedstock concerns, maintenance shutdowns and operational adjustments. These production controls have helped prevent an even sharper decline in prices.
Looking ahead, July is expected to remain challenging for the ethylene market. Fresh supply from restarted crackers and sluggish downstream demand are likely to keep pressure on prices. However, weakening cracker economics and discussions of possible production cuts in South Korea and other parts of Asia may help limit further downside if feedstock markets stabilize.
Key Plant Updates
CPC Taiwan – No. 3 Naphtha Cracker (Linyuan)
Capacity: 720,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 80% rates due to feedstock concerns
CPC Taiwan – No. 4 Naphtha Cracker (Linyuan)
Capacity: 385,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 65% rates
CPC Taiwan – No. 6 Naphtha Cracker (Kaohsiung)
Capacity: 700,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 80% rates
CPC Taiwan – Dalin Refinery
Capacity: 450,000 tons/year propylene
Status: RFCC unit remains shut following April fire; restart expected in August
Formosa Petrochemical – No. 1 Cracker (Mailiao)
Capacity: 700,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Offline since October 2025 with no confirmed restart date
Formosa Petrochemical – No. 2 Cracker (Mailiao)
Capacity: 1.035 million tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 70% rates
Formosa Petrochemical – No. 3 Cracker (Mailiao)
Capacity: 1.2 million tons/year ethylene
Status: Scheduled maintenance shutdown planned for August
Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211
Despite the sharp correction, ethylene prices still remain around $110-120/ton above levels seen before the Middle East conflict, indicating that while most of the geopolitical premium has disappeared, some gains are still embedded in the market.
Market participants noted that naphtha values have almost returned to pre-conflict levels, while crude oil prices have remained under pressure following easing concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, producers and traders have continued offering cargoes aggressively for July loading.
However, several traders believe the market is approaching a bottom. With ethylene prices now near cash-cost levels for many naphtha crackers, further declines may become increasingly difficult unless feedstock costs weaken further.
Ethylene Price Snapshot
CFR China
Latest Price: $830/ton
Weekly Change: ▼ $30/ton
Bid Range: $780-790/ton
Offer Range: $850-900/ton
CFR Southeast Asia
Latest Price: $800/ton
Weekly Change: ▼ $50/ton
Bid Range: $770-780/ton
Offer Range: $850-900/ton
Southeast Asia recorded the sharper decline this week as active spot selling pushed prices down for a twelfth consecutive week. A Japanese supplier reportedly sold cargoes to Thailand at around $790-800/ton CFR for mid-July delivery, establishing a new market benchmark below the $850/ton levels seen a week earlier.
Over the past two weeks alone, Southeast Asian ethylene prices have dropped nearly 12%, while values have plunged more than 50% from the peak recorded in early April. Buyers have started returning to the spot market selectively, believing prices may be nearing a floor.
Many producers are now facing negative margins. Market sources indicated that some South Korean and Chinese cracker operators are evaluating potential run-rate reductions as profitability continues to deteriorate.
Additional supply is expected to enter the market during July following the restart of several regional crackers, particularly in Malaysia. The return of these facilities is likely to keep supply comfortable despite weak demand conditions.
In Northeast Asia, prices also moved lower as buyers remained cautious. Weak demand from polyethylene, PVC, styrene monomer and MEG sectors continued to limit purchasing activity. Lower feedstock costs and improving supply conditions added further pressure to the market.
Chinese domestic ethylene prices softened during the week, while several downstream industries maintained a cautious stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Traders reported limited spot buying interest despite relatively balanced domestic availability.
At the same time, several crackers across China and Taiwan continue to operate at reduced rates due to feedstock concerns, maintenance shutdowns and operational adjustments. These production controls have helped prevent an even sharper decline in prices.
Looking ahead, July is expected to remain challenging for the ethylene market. Fresh supply from restarted crackers and sluggish downstream demand are likely to keep pressure on prices. However, weakening cracker economics and discussions of possible production cuts in South Korea and other parts of Asia may help limit further downside if feedstock markets stabilize.
Key Plant Updates
CPC Taiwan – No. 3 Naphtha Cracker (Linyuan)
Capacity: 720,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 80% rates due to feedstock concerns
CPC Taiwan – No. 4 Naphtha Cracker (Linyuan)
Capacity: 385,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 65% rates
CPC Taiwan – No. 6 Naphtha Cracker (Kaohsiung)
Capacity: 700,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 80% rates
CPC Taiwan – Dalin Refinery
Capacity: 450,000 tons/year propylene
Status: RFCC unit remains shut following April fire; restart expected in August
Formosa Petrochemical – No. 1 Cracker (Mailiao)
Capacity: 700,000 tons/year ethylene
Status: Offline since October 2025 with no confirmed restart date
Formosa Petrochemical – No. 2 Cracker (Mailiao)
Capacity: 1.035 million tons/year ethylene
Status: Operating at 70% rates
Formosa Petrochemical – No. 3 Cracker (Mailiao)
Capacity: 1.2 million tons/year ethylene
Status: Scheduled maintenance shutdown planned for August
Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211
