SupplyThursday, 25 June 2026·India
European PVC Market Expected to Face Steeper Declines in July
European PVC prices continued to soften throughout June as weak demand, growing sales pressure, and competitive import offers kept the market under strain. Although producers initially attempted to limit reductions, worsening market conditions forced many suppliers to grant larger discounts to secure business.
The PVC market has already retreated from the multi-year highs reached during the conflict-driven rally earlier this year. However, the correction remains relatively limited compared to the magnitude of the previous surge, leading many participants to believe that further downside is likely in the coming months.
June Discounts Increase as Demand Remains Weak
Throughout June, suppliers struggled to maintain pricing levels as converters restricted purchases to immediate requirements and continued drawing down existing inventories.
Most producers eventually offered discounts of around €50/ton, reflecting weaker market conditions and softer raw material costs. Additional spot volumes were often marketed at even more competitive levels as sellers attempted to stimulate demand.
Despite being a traditionally stronger period for construction-related applications, consumption remained disappointing across key European markets. Buyers showed little urgency to rebuild stocks, preferring to wait for lower prices.
PVC Price Movement Since the Conflict Rally
Northwest Europe – S-PVC K67
Peak increase from pre-conflict levels: +60% to +63%
Peak reached: Mid-May
Correction by late June: -7%
Current level vs pre-conflict market: Still +47% higher
Italy – S-PVC K67
Peak increase from pre-conflict levels: +55% to +58%
Peak reached: Mid-May
Correction by late June: -5%
Current level vs pre-conflict market: Still +45% higher
The data indicates that despite recent declines, a large portion of the earlier gains remains embedded in the market.
Supply Remains Comfortable
Supply conditions continued to be sufficient despite isolated production disruptions and maintenance activities at certain European facilities.
Converters focused on reducing inventories purchased during the earlier price spike while also trimming finished goods stocks. End-users remained cautious, delaying purchases in anticipation of lower PVC prices ahead.
As a result, overall supply availability remained adequate to meet current market requirements.
Imports Continue to Pressure Local Suppliers
Imported PVC remained highly competitive across Europe.
Fresh offers from Asian suppliers continued to undercut domestic material despite elevated freight rates. Chinese PVC was reported around €840/ton CIF, while South Korean material was heard between €840-900/ton CIF, depending on destination and volume.
Even with attractive import pricing, buyers remained cautious. Many were concerned that cargoes arriving later in the summer could lose their pricing advantage if European markets continue to decline.
Meanwhile, additional discounts on Mexican-origin material also increased competition across the market.
Limited Impact Expected from EU-US Trade Agreement
The recently approved EU-US tariff agreement could eventually remove import duties on a wide range of industrial products, including plastics.
However, for PVC, the impact is expected to remain limited. Existing anti-dumping duties on US-origin PVC remain significantly higher than the standard import tariff and are likely to continue restricting large-scale US participation in the European market.
July Outlook Turns More Bearish
Market sentiment for July has become increasingly negative.
Participants expect a substantial decline in the next European ethylene settlement following the sharp correction in energy and feedstock markets. Many expect producers to pass through part of the expected monomer reduction, while competitive pressures could force even larger concessions in some negotiations.
The approaching summer holiday season is also expected to reduce industrial activity and slow purchasing further across the region.
With demand remaining weak, inventories still comfortable, and imports continuing to compete aggressively, most market participants believe PVC prices are likely to face another round of declines during July before the market begins to stabilize.
Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.
The PVC market has already retreated from the multi-year highs reached during the conflict-driven rally earlier this year. However, the correction remains relatively limited compared to the magnitude of the previous surge, leading many participants to believe that further downside is likely in the coming months.
June Discounts Increase as Demand Remains Weak
Throughout June, suppliers struggled to maintain pricing levels as converters restricted purchases to immediate requirements and continued drawing down existing inventories.
Most producers eventually offered discounts of around €50/ton, reflecting weaker market conditions and softer raw material costs. Additional spot volumes were often marketed at even more competitive levels as sellers attempted to stimulate demand.
Despite being a traditionally stronger period for construction-related applications, consumption remained disappointing across key European markets. Buyers showed little urgency to rebuild stocks, preferring to wait for lower prices.
PVC Price Movement Since the Conflict Rally
Northwest Europe – S-PVC K67
Peak increase from pre-conflict levels: +60% to +63%
Peak reached: Mid-May
Correction by late June: -7%
Current level vs pre-conflict market: Still +47% higher
Italy – S-PVC K67
Peak increase from pre-conflict levels: +55% to +58%
Peak reached: Mid-May
Correction by late June: -5%
Current level vs pre-conflict market: Still +45% higher
The data indicates that despite recent declines, a large portion of the earlier gains remains embedded in the market.
Supply Remains Comfortable
Supply conditions continued to be sufficient despite isolated production disruptions and maintenance activities at certain European facilities.
Converters focused on reducing inventories purchased during the earlier price spike while also trimming finished goods stocks. End-users remained cautious, delaying purchases in anticipation of lower PVC prices ahead.
As a result, overall supply availability remained adequate to meet current market requirements.
Imports Continue to Pressure Local Suppliers
Imported PVC remained highly competitive across Europe.
Fresh offers from Asian suppliers continued to undercut domestic material despite elevated freight rates. Chinese PVC was reported around €840/ton CIF, while South Korean material was heard between €840-900/ton CIF, depending on destination and volume.
Even with attractive import pricing, buyers remained cautious. Many were concerned that cargoes arriving later in the summer could lose their pricing advantage if European markets continue to decline.
Meanwhile, additional discounts on Mexican-origin material also increased competition across the market.
Limited Impact Expected from EU-US Trade Agreement
The recently approved EU-US tariff agreement could eventually remove import duties on a wide range of industrial products, including plastics.
However, for PVC, the impact is expected to remain limited. Existing anti-dumping duties on US-origin PVC remain significantly higher than the standard import tariff and are likely to continue restricting large-scale US participation in the European market.
July Outlook Turns More Bearish
Market sentiment for July has become increasingly negative.
Participants expect a substantial decline in the next European ethylene settlement following the sharp correction in energy and feedstock markets. Many expect producers to pass through part of the expected monomer reduction, while competitive pressures could force even larger concessions in some negotiations.
The approaching summer holiday season is also expected to reduce industrial activity and slow purchasing further across the region.
With demand remaining weak, inventories still comfortable, and imports continuing to compete aggressively, most market participants believe PVC prices are likely to face another round of declines during July before the market begins to stabilize.
Stay ahead of market trends with the Credco app. For any queries, please reach out via WhatsApp at +91 8448083211.
